Petty Tyrants

Man, this stuff angrifies my blood mightily. We were sold the idea of “shelter-in-place” in order to “flatten the curve”. This would avoid overloading the medical system, as shown below. Fair enough.

And like a fool, I assumed that when the curve was flattened, we could get back to work.

flatten the curve.png

But noooo … I just got the latest Order of the Sonoma County Health Officer. The shelter-in-place is extended until the following conditions are met to the satisfaction of some County bureaucrat somewhere. The conditions are that before we are free to continue with our lives, Sonoma County must have the following abilities.

• The ability to monitor and protect our communities through aggressive testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;

• The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;

• The ability to reduce infection spread so that it is decreasing in the community;

• The ability of the hospital and health systems to have sufficient bed and ICU capacity to handle surges;

• The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;

• The ability to obtain sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE) for hospitals and health system to handle surges;

• The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and

• The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.

Say what? The pluted bloatocrats of the Sonoma County Government will have to possess all those abilities before they will deign to return our freedom? Some of those are not even possible!

Plus in the last clause, they say they won’t let us go until they can figure out just how and when they can re-imprison us. The mind boggles.

Not only that, but our Sonoma County officials have trouble patching the potholes … no way they’ll EVER have all of the “abilities” listed above.

I’m sorry, but this is simply not legal. These are mere county officials—who made them kings and queens to decide our fate and rule every aspect of our lives?

Oh, yeah, I forgot to mention the so-called emergency. These pinche tiranos claim that their power comes from the corona “emergency”. Sonoma County is home to just under half a million people (494,000). We have had exactly two deaths from coronavirus.

Two.

What kind of a low-budget emergency is that?

Grrrr … seems like its time we stopped listening to these tiranitos repinchitos and just declared the US open for business. Look, we can slow the virus without killing the economy. Protect the most vulnerable, quarantine the sick rather than the healthy, wash your hands (particularly after handling pangolins), wear masks, in social situations stay six feet (2 m) away from bats, and let’s move forward no matter what our self-proclaimed overlords have to say about the matter.

My best to everyone, end the American Lockdown in whole and in part, and most particularly … stay well.

w.

 

149 thoughts on “Petty Tyrants

  1. Well said.The lockdown was justifiable at first because there were so many unknowns and so many bad examples.

    But now that we know that the models were not just wrong, but were unthinkably wrong, we aren’t going to have every small town turn into a New York style of disaster, people need to start pushing back and/or ignoring these lockdowns

    As Dennis Prager says in his fireside chat this week “until it’s safe” means never lifting the restrictions.

    Liked by 3 people

    • I disagree with you that the lockdown was justifiable at first. Early on, the real experts were pointing to the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a great example of what could happen. The main point taken from that should have been to protect the elderly who possessed comorbidity issues and let the rest of society get on with business.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Seeing Italy and NYC where the medical system was being overwelmed, avoiding that situation elsewhere was worth a lot. Those real-world situations were enough different from the Diamond Princess situation as to indicate a very real risk that hospitals would be overrun, and that leads to very bad outcomes.

        I actually expected the pushback to start around the beginning of May (the end of the first 2-week ‘flatten the curve’ period), but Trump very clearly wanted to re-open the economy then, but reluctantly extended the recommendations, so people were willing to go along a bit longer. But so many of the petty tyrants that Willis is referring to have been so active during May (and they weren’t that active in April for some reason) and more numbers have come in to show that NYC is not ‘where the rest of the country will be in a few days’ that it’s hit the level of people resisting.

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  2. Come to south Africa to see the greatest circus of petty tyrants evah! No beer, no cigs, curfews, excercise between 06hoo and 09h00 only, the poorest need smartphones and airtime to access relief funds, no “unfettered” e-commerce (because it’s unfair competition to whatever, ooh competition: the evil of it to a commie minister), the list is endless.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Willis, were the Coercive Acts any more onerous?

    A cowed and coward citizenry. Just mind-blowing. I’m aghast so many people are taking this lying down.

    Diseases happen. People die (everyone, eventually, from something other than ultimate telomere collapse). We do our best to protect ourselves and others from unnecessary death. We don’t need government to force us to do anything.

    This all is so, so depressing. It would not take much to get me to man the barricades. The best I can do, irrespective of its ineffectuality, is to write every government official I can think of and express my extreme displeasure.

    And, to add, I live in Florida, which has been more sensible than California and most other States, but still suffocatingly oppressive.

    Liked by 1 person

    • No, the Coercive acts were not more onerous, but they were clearly punitive with no claim to be beneficial and no end date in place.

      The initial lockdown had a ‘obviously’ beneficial value that people went along with it. But as the tyrants are talking about extending the restrictions forever, people are resisting.

      and even with the Coercive acts, what percentage of the colonies actually took action to resist? most people quietly submitted.

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  4. Looks to me like it’s time to invoke the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment. When the government shuts down your business, or the one you work for, they are ‘Taking’ your income from you and should have to pay just compensation. That’s probably where the $1,200 individual payment idea came from as an attempt to head off the lawsuits. It might take a while to get it to the Supreme Court but at least there is a good chance the current court will shut down all this B.S.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Two trillion dollars divided by 330 million people is more than $6000 per person. Some people got $1200. What happened to the rest of the money?

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      • a large chunk went to unemployment
        a large chunk went to the paycheck protection program (loans to small businesses that are forgivable if they keep people on the payroll)
        a large chunk went to the federal reserve to back loans to big companies
        and a not-quite-as-large chunk went to Democrat Pork

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  5. Look, I’ve given up bat soup as my way of contributing toward gaining our constitutionally guaranteed freedoms back.

    How about massive disobedience?

    Liked by 2 people

    • it has started.

      I think the next several months are going to be very interesting. I think even the red states are being a bit overcautious, but compared to the blue states, they are moving at a lightning pace.

      The different outcomes in the different areas are going to make a big difference, if we get to November with the red states booming, and the blue states collapsing, it will be very interesting what happens in the purple states.

      How many Governors are up for election this year? I know that California and Florida are not, but what about Michigan?

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  6. The California state guidelines for what “comrades” are allowed to do. These petty tyrants are sick.
    (https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/)

    Athletics
    Badminton (singles)
    Throwing a baseball/softball
    BMX biking
    Canoeing (singles)
    Crabbing
    Cycling
    Exploring Rock Pools
    Gardening (not in groups)
    Golf (singles, walking – no cart)
    Hiking (trails/ paths allowing distancing)
    Horse Riding (singles)
    Jogging and running
    Kite Boarding and Kitesurfing
    Meditation
    Outdoor Photography
    Picnics (with your stay-home household members only)
    Quad Biking
    Rock Climbing
    Roller Skating and Roller Blading
    Rowing (singles)
    Scootering (not in groups)
    Skateboarding (not in groups)
    Soft Martial Arts – Tai Chi, Chi Kung (not in groups)
    Table Tennis (singles)
    Throwing a football, kicking a soccer ball (not in groups)
    Trail Running
    Trampolining
    Tree Climbing
    Volleyball (singles)
    Walk the dog
    Wash the car
    Watch the sunrise or sunset
    Yoga

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Willis,
    Your own stats, great job by the way, indicate to me that your Sonoma county, with only 2 deaths for 1/2 a million people…..is most likely lying to the public.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. I and some people I know are starting to push back on the restrictions. Meeting in driveways for beers, fishing in boats too small to socially distance, and traveling hundreds of miles to second homes. This is from a group in the high risk category.

    Soon the people will not accept the random the restrictions of any type. But business will. So we will have the economy killed and social distancing ineffective.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I live in a 60,000 rural area population.
      No cases, no deaths.
      Yet our local brownshirts have closed all our fishing streams, lakes and foreshores.
      “no correspondence will be entered into”

      A conclusion I have arrived at after ~ 55 years of observation about human behavior –
      whatever the issue, we initially go too far in reacting to it, and then swing back too far to undo the first response.

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  9. You are correct, of course. None of those capabilities is possible, or quatifiable, or within the county government’s power. You should take this as a declaration of a permanent Sonoma police state and the end of your liberties. Where is the sign-up sheet for recalling your county leadership and the state governor? Where is the restraining order? In California there isn’t a single Judge who agrees with us? When is the public demonstration?

    Liked by 1 person

  10. Politicians getting a taste of power are like tigers getting a taste of human flesh. They keep coming back for more until they are stopped. (and I mean in the figurative sense, voted out, not the way you stop a tiger)

    Liked by 2 people

  11. I wonder if His Majesty the Health Officer is elected or appointed. Looking at the Sonoma County Health Services web pages, I found that “The Health Action Council is comprised of multi-sector leaders who work collectively to achieve equity and improve health and well-being.” Notice that the first goal is to achieve equity. Health is only secondary. By locking everybody up, they have achieved equity. Bravo, mission almost accomplished.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. I just performed a Covid-19 statistical search of the Great State of Jefferson counties and discovered the survival rate here is 99.99967%, and over half of the .00033% who passed were located in a 25-mile area, and they were all oldies like us.

    Our two-bit fascist governor of California says we in the north state need to adhere to the same unconstitutional restrictions as he imposed on SoCal – that is strictly Bravo Sierra.

    In Oregon, every single death attributed to Covid-19 happened to old folks with comorbidity issues. Outside of the Willamette Valley area, which comprises 75% of the state, there were only two deaths from Covid-19.

    It is ironic that I joined the military voluntarily during the Vietnam War to fight Communism, taking an oath to uphold and protect our Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic, and now I have to struggle against a fascist nanny state here in our great country. I never saw that coming.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Only about 17% of the population should avoid both direct and indirect physical contact with the outside world without extreme, knowledgeable protective measures (I am one of the 17%). Mandating protective measures (e.g. masks & ‘social spacing’) on the 83% that are not at significant life risk is actually counterproductive because it inhibits the natural development of herd immunity which is the only thing (until the artificial herd immunity of vaccination) that will make it safe enough for all of us to return to our previous life styles.

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  14. It is important to be deliberative, measuring the pro’s and con’s of this difficult problem: ie, infecting all of the people some of the time or some of the people all of the time. I hem and haw on this issue, torn as I am by the suffering of the innocent as perpetuated by the empowered, upon the gullible, of which I confess to be a member.

    Strong words address the defiled Constitution which I respect mightily. I haven’t yet come to grips with imprisoning my fellow citizens for the sake and welfare of the greater multitude, and yet, questioning in my mind as I have, should I acquiesce, ignoring my rationale for other’s benefit? It is hard for me to determine given as it were, these seem to be political questions and behaviors and in keeping with what I had thought were some sort of truths laid out so very long ago by our forefathers.

    Nevertheless, I continue in my humdrum life, hoping against hope that someone, somewhere will speak out and gain the attention of more than myself.

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  15. ” Sonoma County is home to just under half a million people (494,000). We have had exactly two deaths from coronavirus.” –

    That is out of around 250 known cases of COVID19 indication a fatality rate just under 1%.

    So if the infection spreads unchecked to the total population of the County it would be around 4500 deaths.
    If you assume that for every known case there are 10 undetected, minor or asymptomatic cases that is still 450 deaths.

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    • which would be a death rate of 0.1%, about that of the regular Flu.

      We don’t have an effective vaccine for the Flu, but we don’t stop the world and kill businesses every year when Flu starts making it’s rounds.

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      • -“which would be a death rate of 0.1%, about that of the regular Flu.”

        That is the death rate of people who catch the ‘regular Flu’, but many are vaccinated or have past immunity.
        If regular Flu had a 0.1% death rate it would kill ~300,000 people a year in the US, and 470 in Sonoma.
        Some Nations have restricted the COVID19 fatality rate to something like a mild Flu, Australia, New Zealand and S Korea for example. But they all imposed testing, tracing, isolation and distancing very early in their outbreaks to deal with local clusters.

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  16. My concern is that this is just a test run before the main event. I never did trust those bl**dy “social science a**holes” when I was at university.

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  17. Willis, those conditions are the ones our western governors agreed too and not county specific (I’m in Oregon). As soon as I saw the list put out last month I knew we were in trouble. Governor Brown just extended Oregon’s state of emergency until July which allows her to keep the shelter in place order active. The only possible good news is we are being told now that May 15 will be the date they’ll allow some counties to open, those with little to no cases.

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  18. From WUWT:

    > And so it goes … seems like a whole lot of countries are converging on the same finish line. Different cultures, different lockdown levels, and headed for the same outcome. Go figure.

    You compare rates from countries that all have about the same rate, and don’t compare them with the vastly more countries that have quite different rates, and then note that all the countries that have about the same rate have about the same rate. Go figure.

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  19. -” Sonoma County is home to just under half a million people (494,000). We have had exactly two deaths from coronavirus.” –

    That was 2 deaths and 128 recovered, a 2% fatality rate amongst those with a positive test or obvious symptoms. The socoemergency.org site is rather good at reporting how many, where, and when.
    It is now three deaths.

    Liked by 1 person

    • You’d think people would have learned about citing deaths too early

      On Feb 17th at WUWT with 0 US deaths and 68 cases
      Plenty of folks were laughing at the warnings folks like me were giving.

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  20. Completely off topic, but I thought it worth mentioning that researchers have finally caught up with Willis’ observation that the tropics are cooled by rising moist air.
    https://phys.org/news/2020-05-cold-air-riseswhat-earth-climate.html

    The punch line imho is ‘The authors’ calculations further suggest that the radiative effects of vapor buoyancy increase exponentially with climate warming.’, just as Willis was saying.
    The water vapor rising dissipates the excess heat to space.

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  21. BTW –

    With respect to this hysterical, snowflake, binary-thinking, politically expedient, tribal whining about “tyrants,” people’s behavior mostly changed well before the government mandated shelter in place policies:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-didnt-wait-for-their-governors-to-tell-them-to-stay-home-because-of-covid-19/?ex_cid=trump-approval

    So can we also get peolle to think past the inane argument that the severe economic downturn is only because of the ferment mandates?

    Like

    • There were some industries that were hit by the voluntary actions of people (resturants, airlines, cruise ships, entertainment, etc) but it is the actions of the petty tyrants that are preventing people from making choices.

      Would there be a big economic hit if they weren’t throwing people in jail for planning to open their buinesses? Yes. Would the hit be as bead? No.

      There are a lot of people who were either scared enough or just willing to go along when Italy and NYC were blowing up because we didn’t have enough information to disagree with the premise that the rest of the country would be like NYC in a few days/weeks. But now we have seen the evidence, and areas that re not remotely close to running into medical capacity limits are seeing no reason to stay shutdown.

      the idea was to flatten the curve to not run out of medical capacity, the lockdown is not to prevent anyone from getting it. “Slow the spread” not “prevent the spread”

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      • David –

        > Would there be a big economic hit if they weren’t throwing people in jail for planning to open their buinesses? Yes. Would the hit be as bead? No.

        People like to make cross-country comparisons. Compare the economic impact in Denmark and Sweden.

        > the lockdown is not to prevent anyone from getting it. “Slow the spread” not “prevent the spread”

        Sorry, but that’s a strawman (for the most part). Most officials are not suggesting that we can make infections just stop.ook at the guidelines. They are based on trend in spread, not eliminating all cases. The idea is to try to build infrastructure so as to enable test, trace, and isolate to help manage the spread. Yes, if anyone thinks that government mandated shelter in place orders will “prevent the spread” they are mistaken.

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  22. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he will take his company out of California amid an ongoing dispute about reopening plant operations in Alameda County. The billionaire said Tesla will immediately move its headquarters, located in Palo Alto, and future programs to Texas and Nevada.

    The spat began when Dr. Erica Pan, Alameda County’s interim public health officer, said Tesla could not reopen operations at its main factory in Fremont, California, as the company had planned to do on Friday.

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  23. _”the idea was to flatten the curve to not run out of medical capacity, the lockdown is not to prevent anyone from getting it. “Slow the spread” not “prevent the spread”

    Taking action to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system turns out to have an interesting side-effect.
    It reduces the death toll by an order of magnitude or more.
    Compare Austria with Belgium, or Norway and Denmark with Sweden. Whether the method is strict lockdown, or widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of all positive cases and contacts, it breaks the chain of cross-infection with the result that the cumulative death toll under the flattened curve is in the hundreds, not the thousands or tens of thousands.

    Sonoma does have the option of applying the S Korean method. It could avoid a blanket lockdown and social isolation that shuts down the economy as it is in the early stage of spread by using the test and isolate all positive cases and contacts. This would require a considerable, and expensive program of testing, contact tracing, and daily follow-up by a central authority, but would preserve the majority of economic activity and social freedoms for most.
    A blanket lockdown is cheaper, requires much less central governance and pushes all the responsibility for breaking the chain of infection onto the individual instead of it being a community effort.

    I suppose it is possible to argue that such efforts to flatten the curve as seen in New Zealand, Taiwan, and S Korea will not change the final death toll. That eventually the same number of people will get infected and die, just over several years instead of a few months. But the development of potential treatments including an effective vaccine makes that a hard position to defend.

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    • > I suppose it is possible to argue that such efforts to flatten the curve as seen in New Zealand, Taiwan, and S Korea will not change the final death toll. That eventually the same number of people will get infected and die, just over several years instead of a few months. But the development of potential treatments including an effective vaccine makes that a hard position to defend.

      The corollary is that reaching that number slowly will cause less economic harm, and that the differential harm from shelter in place orders is unambiguously enormous as compared to a slower spread where some 50%? of the population gets infected.

      That argument, of course, is easy to make but only if you fail to respect the enormous uncertainties involved. There are plenty of reasons to beleive that with building testing, tracing, and isolating infrastructure rather than just opening things up, the economic impact can be mitigated. And of course, there no reason why opening up and building thst infrastructure need to be mutually exclusive.

      But where people want to be indignant and see petty tyrants to rail against, they will do so. One way that people deflect fear is to see themselves as victims.

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  24. Hello Willis,
    I believe that the current Covid-19 statistics are a poor way to judge the severity of the issue because there is too much imprecision in the true cause of death. I suggest that “excess deaths” would be a more useful parameter.
    If we chose a date, say February 1, as a start of the pandemic in the USA, we should compare the total number of deaths since then with the average number of deaths in the same period for the past 5 years. In the absence of any other important factor affecting mortality, it would seem logical to attribute the excess to Covid-19. Motor vehicle deaths may be decreasing, suicides may be increasing, common flu deaths decreasing, etc., but still the excess death numbers would tell an accurate story that is totally objective and not subjective as to cause of death.
    To put things in perspective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. If you believe that we have lost 75,000 to Covid-19, it is a small fraction. If, as I, you believe that many of these outcomes were related to other underlying issues and many would have succumbed anyway, the fraction is even smaller.
    People take notice of what you say and if you could adopt this approach to the numbers we might get better decisions from our leaders (I live in Canada, the issues are the same).
    As you clearly point out, as long as the health care system is not overwhelmed, we simply need to isolate those at greatest risk and get the economy moving by letting everyone else get on with their lives as adults while continuing social distancing and good common sense.
    On another though while I have your attention? Imagine if the US government had stockpiled N-95 masks, surgical masks and hand sanitizer last year. Enough for multiple quantities for every man woman and child. The cost would have been minimal and we could have mitigated the disease at the outset. $50K ventilators are fine but the basic needs are at the mass population and low tech level. Even today, why not have everyone in any office building in New York city wear an N-95 mask in public areas?
    Stephen Rowland 613-762-7686

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  25. -“To put things in perspective, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there were 2,813,503 registered deaths in the United States in 2017. If you believe that we have lost 75,000 to Covid-19, it is a small fraction.”

    It is about a 12% increase. The last winter flu in 2018-19 caused a ~1% increase.
    Average deaths in the US are around 8000 a day.
    COVID19 deaths are ~1000 a day at present, and seem to have plateaued, but with little sign of decreasing compared to Nations that responded more effectively.
    YMMV on whether a 1/8th increase is a small fraction.

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    • The question remains, how many of the 1,000 “Covid” deaths would have occurred anyway? Are we now at 9,000 deaths per day rather than the average 8,000? If anyone knows the answer please give it.

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      • -“The question remains, how many of the 1,000 “Covid” deaths would have occurred anyway?”

        All of them, eventually.
        Although for the three deaths reported so far of children of children under 6, probably not for many years yet.

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  26. Willis, you are quite the stats hound so can I get your opinion on if I’m missing something obvious (or not)? The idea to work around the bad data was to look at “excess deaths” (Rud Istvan) and I found the totals for 2014-17 (about 120,000 a year for New York state) and with some help from user dwestall over at wattsupwiththat found the 2020 total deaths in a round-about way.

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

    Click New York state and then go through weeks 1 to 16 and then get the “Total Deaths” from the bottom right. First 4 months is 39,005

    The yearly data on deaths for New York state are here and 2014-17 average about 120,000 a year

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm

    So we expect approximately 40,000 deaths in 1/3rd of the year and we have 39,005. Now this doesn’t take seasonal variations into account or other factors but it will be interesting at the end of the year to see.

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  27. You wrote ” The idea to work around the bad data was to look at “excess deaths” (Rud Istvan).”

    I think this came from me, Stephen Rowland, yesterday unless I am mistaken and Rud said it earlier?

    Thank you for the very interesting data regarding excess deaths in New York state. It seems to make my point. I wonder what the figures are like for the country as a whole?

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    • You mentioned it on this site but what got me going was a discussion over at WUWT with Rud that made the suggestion about this approach. I didn’t see yours here until after I’d posted it. I think the idea is a good one. The total deaths number will be more accurate and gets past the deaths from/with covid-19 issue. Thanks

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  28. @-“The total deaths number will be more accurate and gets past the deaths from/with covid-19 issue..”

    The analysis of excess deaths has been carried out for a number of European Nations. It shows that those hardest hit, or with the least effective lockdown measures have deaths significantly in excess of the past yearly average numbers.

    https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/charts-and-infographics/understanding-excess-mortality-the-fairest-way-to-make-international-comparisons

    This despite a likely fall in the number of deaths from road traffic accidents and work fatalities in the construction industry etc.

    It would be deeply strange if the number of deaths during a disease outbreak with a observable mortality actually resulted in FEWER deaths on average because the lockdown, working from home, and increased unemployment. A reduced the death rate below its average for times of normal levels of econmic activity.
    It would indicate that BAU is more toxic than a infectious pandemic with a significant fatality rate.

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    • the places that were hardest hit significantly exceeded the capacity of the health care system in that area.

      What is going to be interesting is the analysis of the areas that were not overwhelmed.

      And in the case of NYC, I suspect we are going to have to differentiate between those in nursing homes and others. The Nursing Home staff were almost certainly overwhelmed, even if the area as a hole was not (and then there is the stupidity of forcing the nursing homes to accept WuFlu positive and contagious patients)

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      • -“the places that were hardest hit significantly exceeded the capacity of the health care system in that area.”

        That would imply that the IFR was primarily related to the capability and resilience of the health and social care systems.

        I have seen a claim that the higher death rate in Sweden compared to other similar Nations, (Denmark, Germany) has less to with their slacker lockdown and more to do with the deterioration in their healthcare system. Although it is ‘universal’ and well funded it has apparently become management bloated with fewer ICU beds per 1000 than some comparable Nations. This argument may also apply to the UK.

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    • And in line with the state of New York stats above (which surprised me as I was expecting to see an increase) I did it up for Georgia. There was discussion on another site about Georgia and it stopping its lockdown so I did the numbers up.
      They average 60,000 a year so I was expecting 20,000 for the first third of the year and instead they have 27,000 so a significant increase. Not what I was expecting twice in a row. I like surprises and both were very much interesting surprises.

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    • Interesting reading, thanks. I agree total deaths compared to a multi-year baseline is probably the best, or the least inaccurate, way to measure it.

      “This despite a likely fall in the number of deaths from road traffic accidents and work fatalities in the construction industry etc.”

      There might be a reduction in traffic deaths and work site accidents but there might also be an increase in suicides or domestic murders etc. We won’t know until the cause of death stats come out. Those are fairly minor in the total numbers. The big ones are heart disease and cancer. For the state of New York those 2 account for about 75-80 thousand of the 120 thousand deaths yearly. Accidents are 7-8 thousand.

      Sadly the CDC only has 2014-17 online and are working on 2018 so it could be 3 or 4 years before we get the breakdown.

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  29. The death rate per million in Sweden is approaching double that in Switzerland.

    Maybe over time they’ll even back out, but still that current trend should serve as an example of how easily people can be wrong by making simplistic comparisons during this pandemic.

    And it should also show to serve that when people are too eager to confirm an ideological bias they are easily attempted to draw conclusions before there are sufficient data to support their conclusions.

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  30. Instead of using the CDC page for top causes of death as I did previously,
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/states/newyork/newyork.htm
    I have looked up other sources such as the state government sites. Problem is they are a mess. Very hard to find total death stats and in the case of Georgia I went with Statista for a single year. So much for a standard 4 year average.

    My previous estimates were all very conservative by design. I made a rough estimate by adding the top 10 causes plus drug overdoses. It was close and erred on the low side by design.

    Using the new numbers there is no “excess deaths” of any statistical significance. This makes the case for lockdown at all, much less continuing, dodgy at best.

    New York: Expected 50,319 / Actual 39,005
    Georgia: Expected 27,699 / Actual 27,161
    Illinois: Expected 36,138 / Actual 37,870

    All 2020 deaths year to date are from this CDC page:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.htm
    Click the state and then go through weeks 1 to 16 and then get the “Total Deaths” from the bottom right.

    New York: 150,959 yearly deaths (2013-16) expected average for 4 months = 50,319
    https://apps.health.ny.gov/public/tabvis/PHIG_Public/lcd/reports/#state

    Georgia: 83,098 yearly deaths (2017) expected average for 4 months = 27,699
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/241581/births-and-deaths-in-the-us-by-state/

    Illinois: 108,000 yearly deaths (2016-18) expected average for 4 months = 36,138
    https://dph.illinois.gov/data-statistics/vital-statistics/death-statistics

    Like

      • something to keep in mind, the winter months tend to have a higher death rate than the rest of the year, so you would expect the first 4 months to be slightly higher than the yearly average. (search for ‘excess winter deaths’ to find info on the topic)

        Like

        • Yes the seasonal differences would be something I would like to track but just getting a 4 year average off the various state web sites is excruciating for a lot of them. The CDC page I’ve been using for “deaths year to date” only goes back to week 40 of 2019 so no luck there either.

          Like

        • Okay there is a way to get it from the CDC site but it is a total pain. I’m new to the CDC web site so finding stuff is “fun”. There is a drop down on the same page I was using for year to date deaths that I can select previous flu seasons. Problem is that it is very tedious as you have to copy all the number manually week by week. I’ve put it into a spreadsheet for easier calculations.

          But given I couldn’t find anything for California I figured I’d do it. I went through week 1-16 for 2016-19 and the average is 88,731 and in 2020 we have 91,453.

          Now that I’ve got that figured out I can do up the numbers with a standard 4 previous year average and make it all seasonally adjusted. Ah fun stuff when you are bored out of your gourd 🙂

          Like

      • NJ is really two very different areas. There are the areas that are effectively NYC suburbs and the rest of the state. The rest of NJ is like most states. (mostly close to untouched with a few larger outbreaks in the larger cities)

        Like

        • I knew a lot of people live in NJ but work in NY. I’m wondering how many NJ residents would normally be treated in NY hospitals? Now with the lockdowns everyone goes to the nearest? Who knows?
          Thanks

          Like

    • Okay progress! I’ve found the data I need on the CDC site and downloaded it. I get to parse out the info I need. I can have a standard 4 year (2016-19) baseline average instead of years all over the place from the various state web sites.I also get to seasonally adjust it by taking the first 16 weeks from each year.

      The CDC does not include New York City in the state of New York stats even though it is part of the state. Ah the fun you have when you go data digging.

      I’ll put it in a spreadsheet on dropbox when done.

      Like

  31. As a fan of irony (and a lover of Trump fans) – I offer some thoughts for consideration:

    Trump supporters rail about the “lockdowns” as tyranny, yet ignore Trump’s pivotal role them being implemented across the country.

    Trump supporters rail against the Imperial College projections, yet ignore Trump’s constant reference to them to promote his greatness.

    Trump supporters say testing isn’t really necessary, yet ignore the wall to wall testing at the Whitehouse.

    Trump supporters praise a “herd immunity” approach AND support Trump who says we’ll have a vaccine very, very soon. But to the extent that a herd immunity approach will work, it relies on the logic of trading off a lot of people getting infected (and sick and dead) quickly (even assuming the idea that protecting everyone vulnerable, which is highly unlikely) for a slower rate of infection. If a vaccine is developed and distributed quickly as Trump says, it may well mean that many people will get sick and die needlessly through the herd immunity approach in comparison to a long and slow approach to infection.

    Of course, if we just assume that any economic hard is attributable to the “lockdowns” and not the raging epidemic

    https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/terence-corcoran-the-price-of-life-lockdown-costs-are-real-but-are-the-benefits

    and of course, if we ignore comparisons like the economic impact in Denmark (with a “lockdown”) as compared to the economic impact in Sweden (without a “lockdown”)

    Then we don’t have to bother thinking about any of those ironies anyway, and we can just continue with our snowflaking self-victimization. ‘Cause it just feels so good.

    Like

    • what you are missing is that there’s very different situation when you don’t know ho things are going to play out and all the experts are telling you that NYS is just a few days/weeks ahead of the rest of the country (at which point a short-term lockdown makes sense) vs what we are seeing now where people are playing politics with the lockdowns (you can have 100 people in a business meeting, but not 10 in a church) and deeming various things ‘non-essential’ with no real criteria for opening up.

      “wait until it’s safe”means never opening up.

      Like

      • David –

        > there’s very different situation when you don’t know ho things are going to play out and all the experts are telling you that NYS is just a few days/weeks ahead of the rest of the country (at which point a short-term lockdown makes sense) vs what we are seeing now where people are playing politics with the lockdowns (you can have 100 people in a business meeting, but not 10 in a church) and deeming various things ‘non-essential’ with no real criteria for opening up.

        Sure. I agree with that. And the Trump administration laid out a set of criteria on which to make the judgement about how to open up. And then the Trump administration basically abandoned those criteria when it came time for people to be accountable. Now granted, it is obviously tough to make the call about exactly which criteria should apply at what level to which localities.

        > “wait until it’s safe”means never opening up.

        Like

        • Damn – somehow this keyboard keeps jumping the gun.

          > “wait until it’s safe”means never opening up.

          So I think that has become a tribal signal call on the right. I mean I get how it might seem that way, or how there are valid questions as to when the restricting criteria might go to far. But by their very nature, the criteria being pushed by the CDC are specifically for opening up. That is explicitly what they are for. And I suspect that most of these government entities being labeled as “tyrants” are, in fact, trying to follow a set of criteria for the specific purpose of opening up. So maybe if you disagree with the criteria, that’s where the conversation should go instead of self-righteous and indignant whining about how oppressed every one is by the big bad lefties and the scientists that are in cahoots with them to oppress conz and punish Trump for winning the election.

          Look, I’m not suggesting that TDS isn’t part of the picture as well. Of course it is. The constant droning on and on about Trump is tiresome and very much an equal part of the problem. I have no problem acknowledging that. But as long as people on either side just stick to their partisan guns we’ll be spinning our wheels. People on the right also need to acknowledge the degree to which Trump and his corporate media are playing the pandemic for political expediency.

          Liked by 1 person

          • The Petty Tyrants aren’t following the CDC guidelines, they are making statements like “until a vaccine is available’ or ‘if the lockdown could save even one life it needs to continue’ or “until it’s safe”

            The CDC guidelines can be argued with (and I do argue that they are inappropriate for much of the country), but at least there is something writtent hat you can argue with.

            Liked by 1 person

          • David –

            Yah. People say stuff. I get that it can be disturbing. But people also like to take things out of context, or find outlier examples to be “outraged” about because it fuels and justifies their anger and antipathy. It helps them do feel self-righteous and indignant and victimized – even when by any common sense standard they’re really not a victim. But yah, people say stuff.

            What are some of the examples of people going beyond the Trump administration/CDC standards in practice? I mean more than saying stuff. I’m guessing from what you’ve said there must be many. My sense is also that everyone wants to open up, and some people want to meet those standards and some want to open up even if they haven’t met them, because they think they’re onerous. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe it’s true that more people are trying to exceed those standards than there are people trying to open up without having met them.

            Like

          • Oh, and I think i asked you before bur didn’t get an answer – which of the CDC standards do you think are onerous or unreasonable?

            Like

  32. -“they are making statements like “until a vaccine is available’ or ‘if the lockdown could save even one life it needs to continue’ or “until it’s safe””

    I’m sure someone has said those phrases somewhere. But it is surprisingly difficult to find a link to a definitive quote by anyone with scientific or even political status. Prof Neil Ferguson in the UK is ascribed that “until a vaccine is available’ phrase, but it turns out he actually said that a lockdown, or at least a strong degree of social distancing is required until testing and contact tracing can cope with the spread. The phrases seem to arise mostly as strawmen.

    The idea that different places could have different rules, or levels of lockdown may appear attractive given the diverse pattern of spread seen in various localities. But it is probably mistaken UNLESS that locality can isolate like an island, unconnected and independent of any outside links.
    Even that has problems.
    As someone commented, we should take our advice from all those zombie movies in which people barricaded themselves in a stronghold to keep safe, only to find in the final reel that it was a person already inside that was the problem.
    For some reason Roger Corman’s ‘Masque of the Red Death’ seems appropriate for the current situation in the White house.

    Like

    • my problem with the CDC guidelines is that they are still thinking in terms of NYC and other places with large outbreaks.

      things like ‘there must be 14 consecutive days of a decrease in the number of new cases.

      if there is more testing, the number of ‘new cases’ can go up without it actually being new cases.

      When the numbers are low enough, the number of cases can increase without it being statistically significant.

      When the number of cases in an area is low enough, a single location (nursing home or even large family) can be enough cases to ruin the 14 day trend, that doesn’t mean that everyone else in the county needs to be locked down.

      If there are few enough cases in an area, they should be able to fully open immediately.

      minutes after I got the e-mail of your comment, I saw an Article quoting the Mayor of Los Angeles stating that the restrictions would not be fully lifed until there was a cure for the Wu Flu. There are lots of virii that we do not have a ‘cure’ for, and a lot tht we do not have an effective vaccine for

      Like

      • David –

        I agree with you that adapting the guidelines to local communities is important. On the other hand, I think that should be balanced against having uniform standards at some level, and the consideration that differing standards in different communities could present problems – particularly if they’re near one another. I think it’s a tough situation.

        > my problem with the CDC guidelines is that they are still thinking in terms of NYC and other places with large outbreaks.

        Perhaps you could show me some evidence of that?

        > things like ‘there must be 14 consecutive days of a decrease in the number of new cases.

        > if there is more testing, the number of ‘new cases’ can go up without it actually being new cases.

        > When the numbers are low enough, the number of cases can increase without it being statistically significant.

        > When the number of cases in an area is low enough, a single location (nursing home or even large family) can be enough cases to ruin the 14 day trend, that doesn’t mean that everyone else in the county needs to be locked down.

        > If there are few enough cases in an area, they should be able to fully open immediately.

        They are offered as guidelines, along with statements that acknowledge the need to adapt to local communities. My question for you is where have you seen people enforcing the general CDC guidelines in ways that you think are unreasonable for a given community?

        > minutes after I got the e-mail of your comment, I saw an Article quoting the Mayor of Los Angeles stating that the restrictions would not be fully lifed until there was a cure for the Wu Flu. There are lots of virii that we do not have a ‘cure’ for, and a lot tht we do not have an effective vaccine for

        Yah. People say stuff. And I get that it’s rhetorically convenient on the right to say that libz have now shifted from flattening the curve to not opening up until there are no cases left. I don’t see that happening in practice, even if you could find some examples of rhetoric to point to as outrage porn.
        For example, here in NY where I live, Cuomo – who has been a constant target for charges of “yranny” from the right – I see that he’s advocating for opening up a wide section of the state. He’s attacked for his “any life lost is one too many” rhetoric – but in his actions it seems that he’s not living up to the caricatures on the right. I mean sure, he might not be opening up as much as some want – but I don’t think it’s really constructive to exaggerate thinks and go outrage mining for political expediency.

        Like

      • Here’s an example of the same phenomenon running in the other direction. CNN runs a headline that says: “Texas sees highest single-day increase in cases” and in the sub-heading they indicate that it isn’t clear if the increase in cases is due to an increase in testing.

        That’s really inexcusable, in my book. But no less so than outrage mining on the right. Or comparing countries when it’s politically expedient to do so but not updating your errors when the situation changes, or cherry-picking countries to compare and leaving out that ones that don’t fit into your preferred narrative.

        It’s all the same, and it’s really unfortunate. It’s not really a big deal during normal tribalism. But it’s really unfortunate in the middle of a pandemic.

        Like

  33. With respect to comparing the effects of a “lockdown” in one country to voluntary social distancing in another, (or, I might add, extrapolating a national fatality rate from an infection rate in a non-random sample from one locality that isn’t nationally representative on such basic metrics such as SES and race/ethnicity) ::

    > On the other hand during the past month I have witnessed, on Facebook, Twitter, Whatsup, mailing lists, etcetera a rather widespread attitude in a large number of colleagues, who have started to entertain themselves with publically available data on contagions, deaths, hospitalized patients, and related geographical information. It began as a trickle of graphs posted on Facebook or Twitter, showing an exponential function overlaid to a few data points, and then it became very quickly a flood of plots of all kinds, where the data were tortured to confess they wanted to plateau somewhere; this was invariably done using this or that single-dimensional parametrization, picked up without justification, “because the chisquare looks good”.

    I saw curves describing data from one country overlaid with other curves describing data from other countries, shifted according to ad-hoc criteria;…

    https://www.science20.com/t

    Like

    • > Getting crowded up there at the top …

      Sure. As long as you mostly plot only those countries that are there at the top, and leave out many, many of the countries that aren’t there at the top, it will be crowded at the top.

      > Sweden still proving its critics wrong,

      I’m not particularly critical of Sweden’s approach. It’s one of the variety of bad choices.

      But when you first compared Sweden to Switzerland, you noted the similarities based on deaths per capita. You ignore the significantly different paths since. Sweden per capita deaths much higher now…perhaps on the way to doubling that of Switzerland.

      Don’t let the pronounced divergence since you made the comparison get in the way of you maintaining your opinion. Similar with Sweden’s rise in that measure relative to the Netherlands, even France, and many, many other countries.

      That’s how motivated reasoning works.

      Like

      • While the rate is declining as is the case mostly everywhere, Sweden also has had the higher per capita deaths in Europe over the last seven days. Even higher than the UK. It’s rate of deaths per capita is clearly declining less than in many other places.

        Cross-country comparisons are of limited value. And the reasons for Sweden’s relatively slower decline than elsewhere are complicated. And there are necessarily tradeoffs in all of this, but you can’t even evaluate the tradeoffs if your vision is limited by your ideological blinders.

        Like

  34. You can delete all my previous posts. LOL. Hiding right in front of me the whole time was the “Download” button with the year selection I needed and in a CSV file format ready for parsing. Ah the fun I have when locked up and bored (Iggy Pop has a song for that). I just need to be more observant.

    New York state and New York City are separate in the CDC reports. The state of New York reports include both. That gave me problems in previous reports as I was using both reports but it is no longer an issue as all the data is from one site and in the same format.

    Connecticut and North Carolina are missing some weeks in 2020 (5 & 3 respectively). Pennsylvania is also negative but not missing any weeks. Interesting, I’ll have to look into that.

    The entire USA is about 4.5% higher than the 4 year average.

    In some online discussions some were suggesting using “excess deaths” to see what effect the covid-19 disease is having and I thought that would be a reasonable approach as it gets past the deaths “with/from” issue.

    State 2016-19-Av 2020 Diff
    ————————————-
    Entire USA 915946 956410 40464

    California 88731 91453 2722
    Florida 65372 68427 3055
    Georgia 26955 27649 694
    Illinois 35539 38088 2549
    Massachusetts 19074 21800 2726
    Michigan 31957 35598 3640
    New Jersey 24525 32600 8075
    New York State 33187 39267 6079
    New York City 17614 35524 17910
    Pennsylvania 44275 37383 -6892

    All the data is from this CDC page:
    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

    The script and all related files are here if you want to kick the tires:
    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/fh9x5fngmfbeiiu/AAAH-OtOMqiY_R9qqG6YccCRa?dl=0

    The script generates data for all 50 states plus DC and New York City (CDC treats it separately from New York State).

    I follow the advice of Ken Thompson, “When in doubt use brute force”. The script is nothing fancy and dumps to file a lot as that is how I like to debug.

    I will be doing up a Powershell script for this as well so the Windows folks can run it natively if they don’t have WSL2 or a Linux system around.

    Like

      • And I just keep finding “fun” stuff in the data.
        As of 2020-05-20 the CDC data has Connecticut missing 5 weeks of data and North Carolina missing 3.
        As of 2020-05-22 the CDC data only has North Carolina missing week 16 for 2020. Progress 🙂

        I also did up the first 16 weeks of 2018 and compared it the previous 4 years (2014-17) for the same weeks. It came in at +7.2% greater compared to 2020 at +5.5% greater.

        Like

  35. I am hoping to make some sense out of the information we have gleaned on the cruise ships.

    I have posted the information/question on several blogs that are usually useful in deciphering real world information from the cacophony of “official” data. I have, however, received few acknowledgements, if at all, and when someone bothered to contribute their thoughts, it was either unrelated or dismissive.

    When we take the ensemble of the ships where Covid19 was detected and made it into the news, we have:

    Diamond Princess
    Grand Princess
    Zaandam
    Ruby Princess

    And then we have the Theodore Roosevelt war ship

    In the 5 ships above, we have a representative sample of 15000 individuals between passengers, crew and sailors that have been exposed to the virus.

    Also, Thanks to The Guardian, we have a particularly accurate account of what happened aboard the Zaandam. Although meant as a sensationalist hit piece, it gives us a very accurate time line of what happened and when.

    All in all, in a population of 15000 individuals, trapped in a confined space that is ideal for the transmission of viral and bacterial infections at the best of times and where passengers are by far the cohort that is most at risk for this virus, the numbers are exceptionally unimpressive.

    Population exposed: more than 15000
    Covid19 infections reported: under 4000
    Covid19 fatalities reported: under 30

    In the particular case of the Zaandam, we know from the report that the 2000 passengers and crew were stranded at sea for 14 days during which the ship was turned away from all ports on its route.
    It was on day 14 that the first flu-like symptoms manifested aboard the ship.
    So, for 14 days, passengers and crew rolled around in Covid19 good and hard.

    Yet, when they finally made port in Florida, infections were running at under 300 with 4 fatalities of which, only 2 tested positive for Covid19.

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2020/apr/07/zaandam-onboard-the-coronavirus-hit-cruise-ship

    Is data from the ships not useful?

    Why is this data not discussed more widely?

    What am I missing?

    Liked by 1 person

    • guidoamm –

      > In the 5 ships above, we have a representative sample of 15000 individuals between passengers, crew and sailors that have been exposed to the virus.

      In what ways are the samples representative? Race/ethnicity? SES? Health status? Comorbidities? Age?

      Are the conditions on board after the discovery of first cases representative?

      Like

      • The conditions are not representative of life on land. But conditions aboard ships are generally much more conducive to the spread of bacterial and viral infections.

        If anything, therefore, I thought that conditions on ships should generate far more infections and fatalities.

        As far as how and why the people on ships are representative, is due to the mix of men and women, young and old along with a selection of ethnicities, all sharing a confined space.

        I would have thought that if this bug was as bad as it is purported to be, a ship should be an ideal environment for it to propagate far an wide in the population of the ship.

        That said, I am a layman.
        g

        Like

        • guidoamm –

          > The conditions are not representative of life on land. But conditions aboard ships are generally much more conducive to the spread of bacterial and viral infections.

          I would think that would depend on when they first found the infection and how much it had spread before that point. After they started realizing they had a problem, they might have been able to very effectively keep people isolated from one another. I think it would also depend on the ventilation system. So many factors that we really don’t know about.

          > along with a selection of ethnicities

          I question whether it would be representative for race/ethnicity or socioeconomic status. Both are strongly predictive of health outcomes, for mediated by a lot of factors such as diet, access to healthcare, comorbidities, health status when they walked on board, etc.

          > That said, I am a layman.

          Well, so am I. That’s why, it seems to me, we should be pretty circumspect about drawing any conclusions. Essentially, you’re talking about convenience sampling. Convenience sampling should have very wide confidence intervals, if you’re going to try to estimate confidence from a convenience sample at all. Essentially, you’re saying that everyone who doesn’t go on a cruise is the same in all important respects as everyone who does go on a cruise. Could be, but I think that’s a pretty big assumption without a pretty solid basis in evidence. .

          Liked by 1 person

        • guidoamm –

          You might find this interesting:

          > A new study has revealed that more than 80 percent of passengers and crew members on a cruise ship that contracted COVID-19 were asymptomatic.

          […]

          > The first fever was on the eighth day of the trip and isolation protocols started immediately, with all passengers confined to their cabins and everyone was issued surgical masks. Personal protective equipment was also worn by anyone who came in contact with passengers.

          https://www.foxnews.com/science/81-percent-of-covid-19-patients-on-cruise-were-asymptomatic-study-says-raising-concerns-on-lifting-lockdown

          Like

    • “All in all, in a population of 15000 individuals, trapped in a confined space that is ideal for the transmission of viral and bacterial infections at the best of times and where passengers are by far the cohort that is most at risk for this virus, the numbers are exceptionally unimpressive.”

      why do you think people trapped in their rooms NOT mixing or congregating is an ideal space?
      A) they are probably not mixing
      B) they are probably hyper vigilant

      early on people made this mistake with the diamond princess data, thinking it was “perfect”
      its not. The assumption that it is perfect is just that. An assumption.

      If you want to know what an ideal environment for transmission is

      LOOK AT THE ACTUAL DATA. DOH!

      from contact tracing in Korea. what are the actual places where the disease spreads easily

      1. Hospitals
      2. Nursing homes
      3. Gyms.
      4. Cramped offices
      5. Nightclubs

      From studies in Singapore
      6. Congregate dormatories
      7. Choir practice

      From China
      8. Multi generational family settings
      9 Prisons

      From germany
      10. face to face business meetings and conferences

      From the USA
      11 weddings and funerals.
      12. Prisons
      13. meat packers
      14 Nursing homes

      So people look at ships and think PERFECT FOR TRANSMISSION.

      wrong. wrong wrong. Nice theory but WRONG.

      How about airplanes? can you catch it on airplanes? Zero data to suggest this. That comes from
      HK and Singapore data tracing travelers back to seat numbers. No super spreading in aircraft.
      Same in Korea. I just flew back here. Sitting in quarantine after being tested. 14 days alone
      in a room. everything is delivered by guys in bunny suits. In 4 months of travel, there isn’t a single
      super spreader event traced to being trapped in an aircraft with others.
      WHAT? aircraft are more perfect than ships for transmission!
      in Puerto Rico? 200 out of 77000 air travelers tested positive. No super spreader events. Facts.

      want to understand transmission? Dont start with your ASSUMPTION that ships are perfect.

      Start with the data. where do you see transmissions and super spreader events?

      not in airplanes, not in ships, not in parks, not on beaches, not in subways or buses.
      not on sidewalks, not in stores,

      Think crowds. Mosh pits. fetid humans breathing on each other. shaking hands, hugging, talking loud,
      singing,

      cases do not happen uniformly. they happen like this

      1,1,1,1,2,3,4,2,1,4,165,1, 2 3,6, 250,

      clusters.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Thank you. That is exactly the type of info I am after.

        As to why I think ships are excellent vectors for infections is because the social dynamics onboard have features that have been identified as ideal for the spread of viruses.

        On a ship, food buffets are available 24/24. The implements for the buffet are touched repeatedly by passengers and crew. Passengers share tables. Passengers share sun beds too although, in this case, maybe sun light mitigates the spread? But passengers also dance and engage in a range of social activities that make them talk to each other at close range and/or touch each other.

        Particularly on the Zaandam, stranded at sea for 14 days, no measures were in effect to try to limit the spread of the virus till the first flu-like symptoms manifested. So, whomever carried the virus onboard had 14 days to spread it to the rest of the population.

        Yet, that did not happen.

        Thank you for your explanation.

        Like

        • “As to why I think ships are excellent vectors for infections is because the social dynamics onboard have features that have been identified as ideal for the spread of viruses.”

          “On a ship, food buffets are available 24/24. The implements for the buffet are touched repeatedly by passengers and crew. Passengers share tables.”

          The sharing of utensils at dinner has not been tied to any super spreading events.
          in all the literature there was one case in Guangdong, 6 people at dinner.

          Like

    • Mosh, you said:

      Alabama testing the hypothesis about the safety of opening

      and

      You’d think Alabama would have asked the Feds for a Field hospital before deciding to open.

      Alabama just relaxed the lockdown on Friday (yesterday). Here’s what the cases look like:

      However, unlike the folks you cited over at CNN, the Alabama State Health Officer says that the state does indeed have enough ICU beds.

      Between a State Health Officer and some random CNN journalarmist, I know who I’ll believe …

      So … just how large a spike are you predicting in the number of cases? Or are you making some kind of number-free prediction?

      Regards, stay healthy,

      w.

      Like

      • “So … just how large a spike are you predicting in the number of cases? Or are you making some kind of number-free prediction?”

        Im making a prediction like your horrid Korean predictions

        Like

        • No, you’re not. My Korean prediction contained, you know … numbers.

          And as to my “horrid” prediction, YOU predicted 2,000 deaths and I predicted “on the order of one hundred, give or take”, with a very, very large caveat, viz:

          “It’s still early, deaths are still happening, so this will be more uncertain.”

          Korea is currently at 266 deaths. I’ll leave the decision as to which prediction was “horrid” to the reader.

          w.

          Like

      • random journalist?

        Nope

        Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed said on Wednesday that of the four regional hospitals, one is short three ICU beds, two have no ICU beds, and one has just one bed.

        Like

        • Mosh, I know that there is a shortage in Montgomery. I was simply pointing out that there is no ICU bed shortage in Alabama, so they’re free to do what the link says they’re doing—merely move people to the next city, where there are ICU beds. In other words, all the hype and anxiety from both you and CNN is totally wasted, the situation is under control.

          Man, you get so locked up in trying to prove me wrong that you make a total fool of yourself. Since it seems like you are hyper-fixated on bad predictions, how about you direct your ire at the folks who predicted two million dead in the US, and leave me alone? Their bad predictions caused the shutdown of the US, and my bad prediction only caused the shutdown of your good judgment … aim your anger where it might do some good.

          w.

          Like

          • Willis –

            > how about you direct your ire at the folks who predicted two million dead in the US,…

            Are you not aware of how misleading your characterization is there?

            And if you’re so angry at the IC conditional projections, why don’t you direct some of your anger at Trump, who keeps stating that he saved millions of lives with his “decisive” actions? And justified his shelter in place orders on that basis? Is he not responsible for the decisions he makes?

            Like

          • Willis –

            > Their bad predictions caused the shutdown of the US,…

            Do you not believe in personal responsibility? Trump made his own decisions. The IC was not in a position to dictate American policy. Trump was. He knew that the models were conditional projections. Surely a stable genius could have figured that out. Why would you blame others for the policy decisions he made?

            Like

          • Joshua, it seems you haven’t noticed. I’ve given up discussing anything with you. It’s not worth it—all downside, no upside.

            You’re no fun, full of accusations, and perpetually misunderstanding the issues. Why would any sane person want to interact with that pool of virulence?

            Directing your questions and comments to me is fruitless. Not interested. Hard pass.

            w.

            Like

          • Willis –

            Of course I’ve noticed you’re ducking, Willis. It’s plainly obvious.

            So pointing out how bad your arguments are work just fine for me whether you respond or not. And if you did respond your arguments would just double down on the bad arguments, so it kind of saves me time.

            Like

          • Although –

            > and perpetually misunderstanding the issues.

            I do miss the irony of arguments like that – given his badly you seen to misunderstand the IC projections.

            Like

          • Joshua May 25, 2020 at 3:34 pm

            Willis –

            Of course I’ve noticed you’re ducking, Willis. It’s plainly obvious.

            “Ducking”? You flatter yourself beyond belief. But hey, keep it up, always good for a belly laugh.

            w.

            Like

          • > You flatter yourself beyond belief.

            Well, Willis you seem to have established a pattern. I didn’t notice any comments from you in that post where Monkton described some of your errors. Seemed odd that you wouldn’t respond.

            But you seem to misunderstand. I don’t think you’re ducking me! I think you’re ducking accountability for the pathetic arguments you make.

            That whole “rule of thumb” post would have been more accurate had you called it a “rule of double thumbs.” Looks like you were close to about 1/2 right on your predictions.

            And you still haven’t addressed how off you were in comparing Switzerland to Sweden and noting their similar tracks when they’ve diverged so muchnsince you made the comparison.

            And you still haven’t addressed why you keep noting the similarities in the pandemic path in a select few countries and ignore the different path in the vast of countries that aren’t on that track (even South Korea and Germany that are even on your chart).

            And you havens addressed your mischaracterization of the IC projections.

            And you haven’t explained explained why you think Trump isn’t responsible for Trump’s policies but that rhe IC is responsible for Trump’s policies.

            And you haven’t explained why Trump isn’t responsible the “tyranny” of the
            ” lockdown.”

            And you haven’t explained how you differentiate the effect of the “lockdown” from the effect of a freaking pandemic on the economy.

            And you haven’t explained your laughable treatment of interventions without any sensitivity analysis – as if you can just add them up without integrating any analysis of their relative impact.

            You could even have talked about Trump’s “decisive” action of shutting down flights as a relatively imoaxtdik intervention and fluffed Trump a bit.

            There’s more, but that’ll do for now.

            It’s not me that you’re ducking Willis. I have nothing to do with it. What you’re ducking is accountability.

            Like

          • And BTW, Willis –

            It seems that you frequently go to making this personal. You’ve taken it personally before when I’ve criticized hirj arguments. You seem to think that because I criticize your arguments I think you’re a bad person or something.

            It’s not personal. I’m sure you’re a smart and nice guy. But that doesn’t mean that you don’t make bad arguments sometimes, especially when you’re ideologically motivated to do so. It’s something that happens with all of us.

            Lighten up.

            Like

      • “However, unlike the folks you cited over at CNN, the Alabama State Health Officer says that the state does indeed have enough ICU beds.

        1. the claim was about the CITY of montgomery.
        2. read what the guy actually said.

        ““I absolutely agree with the mayor that they have reached capacity there, but I also believe they have the ability within their four walls to handle that and handle more if necessary,” Harris said.”

        So the POINT is this.

        A) Alabama appears to be at a plateau.
        B) At the plateau they have reached capacity in SOME FUCKING LOCATIONS.
        C) by reopening they run a risk increased infections as they loosen. Just like we see here
        in Korea. loosen up and BOOM 200 more cases.

        Therefore

        “You’d think Alabama would have asked the Feds for a Field hospital before deciding to open.”

        Why?

        1. because a field hospital is cheap.
        2. because if you are going to open up ( they should try), you should take some minimal
        precaution.
        3. WHY? because the math is hard and Some idiots who applied math to Korea though 100 deaths
        was a good guess and thought 8000 cases was about what you would expect if things
        acted normally.

        Easy peasy.

        1. the city is at capacity, ALL agree about that.
        2. you are opening up, going into uncharted territory where NO MODEL, not yours
        not the governments, can tell you what will happen exactly.
        3. You should probably take some action to prepare for the worst case.

        A small field hospital is quite easy to put in place. Look what they did in NY.

        quick action is your best plan.

        heck here in Korea I am safely locked away in a quick reaction site.

        Korea decided early on to screen in bound travelers. I left and returned on the 16th of may.
        I am currently enjoying a nice stay in the Seoul Marinabay hotel . 100% room service.
        daily medical checks, free corona testing.

        Why? because the government decided to act quickly and cautiously. take hotels that are suffering
        fro a loss of tourism and fill them up with paying customers.

        no gompertz modluz, no CEEMUD stuff, just common sense.

        the CITY of Montgomery appears to have a problem
        IFFFFFF the cases grow ( no one knows, certainly not failed pronosticators who got Korea wrong)
        THEN, that would not be a good thing.
        So, act quickly.

        Shipping ICU patients around the state is kinda stupid, when the army core can come in and do
        what they did for new york.

        Like

        • Mosh, yes, if we put a field hospital in Alabama it would likely do some good.

          Or not.

          After all, we tried that in New York, which was much harder hit than Alabama, and the hospital got no use at all. None. People just as smart as you made the exact same claim that you were making about putting in a hospital. They put one in, it cost $21 million dollars, and now it is closing without a single patient.

          So all of your arrogance about how you know that a field hospital is just what Alabama needs and how I’m just some dumb guy?

          You can stuff it where the solar constant is zero. The people in New York who took your advice wasted $21 million bucks. You know no more about this than I do, and your endless attacks on me just make you look like an irate six-year-old.

          Go bother someone else. You’re not tall enough to succeed in your endless efforts to bite my ankles.

          w.

          Like

          • Of course it would have been nice that Cuomo had used that hospital instead of sending infected people into nursing homes. It’s not like they didn’t know who the most at risk populations were.

            But then these are the same people that imposed DNR orders on anyone that coded on the way to the hospital.

            Like

  36. > The peak is passed. There is no peak to flatten. IF (and it’s an open question) the lockdowns ever did anything, it’s done. The game is over.

    I think it’s better to assess local conditions before making broad policy recommendations.

    It’s funny how often people agree with that, except when it comes to their own policy recommendations.

    Like

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