Open Thread

This is a page for your use, to try out html tags and see what they look like, to post new ideas, to pass along interesting information, to suggest future topics for discussion, to reach out and contact me directly, the floor is yours.

w.

 

84 thoughts on “Open Thread

  1. HI Willis, I really enjoy the beauty of your writing.

    You may like to read about Gertrude Bell who was a remarkable English woman about a generation before your mother but who accomplished similar adventures in the Middle East and Arabia. She became the only female major in the British Army and worked with T E Lawrence. She and he shared a determination that the Arabs should be self governing but were thwarted by the government after the war.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Hello Willis. I am 77 year old uk human with a good education and love the toing and froing between headless chickens and knowledge and common sense.

    I have once posted that if all those apolitical scientist spoke always of ” ever changing climate” rather than repeat the mantra of ” climate change” we could eliminate the misinformation that pervades our media.

    Keep it all going.

    Regards

    Roger welsh

    Like

  3. Jerry Pournelle passed along an interesting tidbit in his column today, Government Unions were enabled by Executive Order by JFK.

    which brings up the very interesting possibility of Trump eliminating them at the stroke of a pen.

    Like

  4. Hi Willis,
    I first appreciated your writing at “WUWT” and find your blog quite rewarding. Please keep it up. I don’t use any social media sites but wanted to recommend additional material regarding you post: “Legalize It All.” Richard Nixon merely escalated the war on drugs, it actually started about 30 earlier pushed by Harry Anslinger as head of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics and not just in America but world wide. The well researched book: “Chasing the Scream: The First and Last Days of the War on Drugs” by Johann Hari is based on Mr. Anslinger’s paperwork archived at Penn State University. It details the birth of and ever escalating ‘war on drugs’ and describes in painful detail the negative and self defeating consequences of this obsession. Sadly, the demagogic politicians, drug cartels, and vast bureaucracy rewarded by the drug wars make its continuation likely but hope springs eternal and wider knowledge can have surprising results. After all, I went from support for to being opposed to the war on drugs too. And yes. like you, I tried some in my college years and luckily found them not worth the bother.

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  5. Willis
    I enjoy your writings. Your stories are amazing to me.
    I am just another angry old white man and so, I have questions.
    One of the things I don’t understand is the immigration argument.
    The USA has taken on the responsibility of some 10 million and maybe even 15 million poor and ignorant immigrants, worldwide. I believe that is enough for now as we catch our breath.
    When Europe gets to 15 million, let us know and we can re-join the effort.
    Does this sound unreasonable?

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    • Thansk for the comment, Mike. While in general I agree I must take exception to the characterization of immigrants as “poor and ignorant”. While some of them are, many of them are people smart enough to look around and see that the world they’re living in suck, and that with lots of effort and some money they might be able to emigrate to the US. They are neither poor nor ignorant, and some of them are very educated, doctors and the like.

      As to how many we are taking, the total for this year will be 50,000 … at that rate it will take us 20 years to bring in the next million, so it doesn’t seem like a huge issue. For me the question is illegal immigration, not legal immigration.

      w.

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        • Mike, Mexican immigrants legal or otherwise are able to get jobs because they are skilled. They get paid better up here, but they wouldn’t get the pay if the couldn’t do the work. I worked with a Mexican construction supervisor who offered ME a job any time I wanted simply because I can use a shovel efficiently. We are turning out generations of apartment-raised children of apartment-raised children who have never used a tool of almost any description. The supervisor had a bias in favour of Spanish speakers, but remarked to me. “kids, these days,” shaking his head. He did not hire inner-city Hispanics because they had too much attitude and too little knowledge.

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  6. Willis, can I communicate without Worldpress involved or is that how the site works? I like your blog and your point of view immensely…..l agree with your political and scientific point of view; thankyou for your work here and at WUWT. I would suggest you peak at Geoff Sharp’s site http://www.landscheidt.info/ and ponder the probability that the sun’s pulse (sunspot/flares) may in fact be caused by the orbital beat of the planets around the sun. A few papers with one recent, show some relationships first with Jupiter and Saturn but in all probability, all the planets must contribute to this variation.

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    • Penn Lion, when Ted Landscheidt was alive I used to communicate with him. I wanted to understand just how his theory worked … but I was never able to understand it. I even wrote a spreadsheet to give me the barycentric orbits for any time past or future, but even with Ted’s assistance I couldn’t make it work.

      In addition the forces involved are tiny ….

      Regards,

      w.

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      • Two possible thoughts. First it might not be tides or solar wobble due to angular momentum affects; second it might be magnetics or electrical given what changes on the sun also is magnetic (flares/sunspots). The peculiar thing is that there appears to be a pattern relating to planetary position at times which correlate to tree rings and ions due to solar wind fluctuations and little ice ages. If the evidence in these physical things is real,then the cause might show it’s face. thks b

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  7. Hey Willis,
    I wonder if you might tell your friend/ competition over at WUWT that his website is running really slow and has been for like a week.
    I check into 20 sites a day, and his is the only one running horribly slow.
    I can’t even get this comment up on his site.
    Thanks

    Like

  8. I am not a wordpress inhabitant. I live in New Zealand so many of your comments are beyond my competence to comment on. I enjoy your posts.
    Here is a site which you may not have https://www.lifewire.com/types-of-internet-trolls-3485894
    I found it yesterday and was wondering where I could pass it on to.
    Incidentally one or two of your posters are ill informed about the Bible as we have it today.
    It was in fact brought together by the Church before the split between East and West.
    The interpretation and reasons why they brought those particular scriptures together can be found by asking Orthodox Churches in the U.S or the U.K I always start from Ancient Faith blogs and podcasts
    http://blogs.ancientfaith.com/ some are useful, others not.

    I found from Jewish world review that Jewish rabbis use other s criptures and have done so for a thousand years or more.

    The early followers of Marx were following a man who had left a strongly orthodox Jewish family to follow various fashionable 19thC philosophies. So they were skewed against Jews and Christians from the beginning.

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  9. Hey Willis, I would love to pick your brain, privately, about conditions in Fiji. I am going there 2/27 to assist with a sea level survey.

    Thanks!

    PMK

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  10. About Vikings. By coincidence I’m just reading a library book.
    North Men .
    The Viking Saga 793- 1241
    John Haywood. 2015.

    948.02 HAY Dewey decimal system

    The Vikings who ranged from Iceland to Novgorod and Byzantium and settled parts of England .
    Interesting maps. also the lead up to the Viking Age in Scandinavia.

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  11. Can you tell me why a Press briefing session at the U S Whitehouse is called a ‘gaggle’?
    The collective noun for a group of geese is a gaggle. Is it an insult to the ‘press’ to liken them to geese rushing around making a lot of noise and making a gaggling sound? I have never heard the term used for reporters.

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  12. Here’s a thought.
    Compare President Trump with Rodney Dangerfield playing crude millionaire Thorton Mellon in “Back To School”.
    He grew up in the construction business, learned the back and forth of BS with workmates, blew kisses at passing women and knows how life actually works.
    He is put down by the elite in academia and the high brow urban dwellers but loved by the people.
    Plus he knows how to make things, including money.

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  13. I hope I’m not intruding with my posts?
    I just was looking at book which may be of interest to those who think wiretapping is a new thing.
    Spy Catcher. The Candid Autobiography of a Senior Intelligence Officer. Peter Wright Former Assistant Director of MI5 (U.K)
    He tells of his beginnings with Marconi and the Post Office Telegraph. Not all conversations were intercepted by wiretapping. Reflected sound from hard surfaces in a room could be recorded outside the building.
    A fascinating book.

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  14. Willis, just as an aside, apparently neither President Trump nor the media have noticed this but I find it interesting that 13 U.S spy agencies (and now all of the main stream media) agree that it was the Russians that were hacking/interfering with our last presidential election when according to Wikileaks the CIA has a group, the UMBRAGE group, that is dedicated to impersonating other country’s hacking techniques. How the hell do they know who did it?

    From Wikileaks (https://wikileaks.org/ciav7p1/):

    “The CIA’s Remote Devices Branch’s UMBRAGE group collects and maintains a substantial library of attack techniques ‘stolen’ from malware produced in other states including the Russian Federation.

    “With UMBRAGE and related projects the CIA cannot only increase its total number of attack types but also misdirect attribution by leaving behind the “fingerprints” of the groups that the attack techniques were stolen from.”

    Liked by 1 person

    • We don’t know who did it. John McAfee pointed this out last year, that a good hacker leaves a false trail.

      Also, we have ABSOLUTELY NO EVIDENCE that the Russians released what they found, and for what it’s worth, both Julian Assange and his offsider deny it as well.

      w.

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      • I had forgotten about McAfee. Come to think of it, didn’t they release the Climategate emails through one or more Russian servers? As far as I know they still haven’t found out who did that.

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  15. Hi Willis,
    I’m sure you’ve seen Scott Pruitt’s latest comments on CO2:

    “So no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see,” Pruitt said. “But we don’t know that yet, we need to continue to debate, continue the review and analysis.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-pruitt-idUSKBN16G1XX

    I had hoped to see something a little more tempered, like: “So no, I would not agree that it’s the primary contributor….”

    Am I picking nits? The true believer CAGWers are having a field day with this.

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  16. Willis, I think you are a throwback. In earlier times you would have been one of the most admired people in the world. Now, we have people from a very narrow fields trying to promulgate their opinions in fields that need multi-disciplined experts. The generalist are the ones who can bring all of them all together. Remember, Sir Isaac Newton was an alchemist. Talk about a generalist!

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  17. Willis,
    One of my online acquaintances created “Silver”.

    > Sliver is a powerful and intuitive software application for multi-dimensional (multivariate) data visualization and analysis on Windows. < w w w.sliversoftware.c om/

    I haven't tried it, so do not know if it is useful for climate data, but it sure looks pretty.

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    • Sadly (or fortunately) I run on a Mac. The good news is that the computer program “R” that I do most of my work in is multiplatform, as well as being interpreted on the fly and wicked-fast. There are a number of packages for “R” designed to do large multi-dimensional data visualization and analysis.

      I started out in 1962 by learning the computer language Alcom, followed by Basic, C/C++, Mathematica,
      Hypertalk, VectorScript, Pascal, and Visual Basic for Applications. Finally, a decade ago I learned “R”, and I suspect or perhaps hope I won’t need to learn another. After more than a half century of programming, I’ve found a language I like.

      w.

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      • Willis, I am not sure where the topic should be.

        As before (on WUWT) we were able to agree on what comes first, the sun rise or the temperature rise if you remember. Well I am still recording my “weather” but have added even more sensors in my yard.

        I made an attempt to measure the temperature and the humidity of the underground as a comparison to the normal surface air temperature. To my surprise, the correlation did not fit in to anything. The settling time of the “slanted hole” in my yard in which my buried weather station transmitter was located, took a long time (over a day). Apparently it had dried out so quickly that it took that long to saturate. The RH finally settled out at 99%. That caused my transmitter to quit working. On the temperature, it did generally what I thought it would but never followed the outside air temp (sensor just above the ground).

        I have noticed that some weather sites have ground temperature sensors installed (just from comments on the site notes) but they are not published along with the other sensors. So nothing to compare with somewhere else.

        Recently, my study of water vapor.

        Please watch the 24hr video strip of http://www.weather.gov/satellite?image-ir#wv .
        I live in the central part of the Texas hill country just north of Uvalde in the lowest valley before the land turns flat all the way to the gulf of Mexico. We get the water vapor currents from the Pacific that
        sweep up across the US and is the cause of the weather patterns. The clouds form above me but do not generate alot of bad weather here. Easy to observe by just going outside and looking up. The dry line that forces these weather currents shifts north and south of my location and provides me with a nice change of humidity to compare with other metrics. It has recently gone from 85% to 16% in under 4 hours.

        Unprecedental? I don’t know.

        And not sadly, but I also use two Macks. Those and along with other PCs in which I run them “sadly” when I have to. (conversions and things like that). My email account has been all screwed up from the beginning so I seldom use it.

        And btw, I love your site.

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        • Lee, it’s great to hear from you. Regarding the look at the in-ground conditions, let me recommend my bible in these matters, Rudolph Geiger’s “The Climate Near The Ground”. It’s a classic, first published in the 1950’s from memory, now in the seventh edition.

          Keep up the weather data collection, it is the basis of everything. Glad you like the site.

          Regards and welcome,

          w.

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          • Thanks for the encouragement, but my intentions are not to follow the weather but to observe the actions of the “Climate”. Whereever I look into “published metrics”, I see the heavy handed remarks that always lead us to the meme. Like you I am trying to grab that famous golden ring that has been painted with gold paint.

            May I again ask you to look at the water vapor video above. From my stand point, I see a big black spot that is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. This is the third time it has appeared. It started in an area of Mexico close to or to the east of Cuidad Victoria.

            I called it a “hot spot” but maybe it should be called a “dry spot”. The first time it appeared, it seemed to start as a small spot but began to grow and meander east into the gulf. This time it appears to be a large area that appeared in the gulf. I suggest it is a factory smoke stack or a burn off flame.

            I did check out the paper you suggested. Seems to be the wholey book for the meme. It has been revised many times by those using it. From memory I believe it is up to the 7th. I found the original on line for about $4.00. I plan to get a copy to see what the revisions are and who made them.

            My study is progressing (I hate using that word) to a stopping point. I have been able to chart out the movements of those coronal holes that seem to be the last item that will give us a blip to follow changes in the density, speed, and temperature of the solar wind. I am using the barometric pressure as my guide as to when it strikes the atmosphere. After the effects of a coronal hole passes, it makes my barometer jump. The CH#82 was the most recent that was facing us on 4/20. The departing ion storm passed on the 23rd yesterday about 16:30 gmt. All the weather related activity ceased and the skys cleared up . However, there is still a stream of protons #82 that will reach earth in about 5 days. After that it will settle out due to the lack of future holes. CH#80 and 82 are a pair of re-occuring blips that give us a show every 27 days.

            Thank you for keeping this string. Enjoy your sex wax and be careful hanging ten.

            Lee O. – Concan, Texas.

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          • … ___ …
            Or just maybe CQ

            sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov

            just to start with it is time sensitive

            Go to more images the first movie
            At 0135 and ends at about 0445. It coincides with the reported flare…

            The big sun spot has provided me with answers about the magnetic field of the sun.

            at this time (whenever after this) SDO have provided the movie of the sun that captures the magnetic field when it passes between us and the sun surface.

            I bellieve this could be placed in the Phenomenon category.

            Oh, and btw that little whirl i cane is back in the south pacific

            LO

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          • Willis,
            Thought I would expand my joy to see the action on the sun, which is just now reaching the right side of the sun.

            Solarham is my go to. A quick look tells me what the others are doing.

            SDO is my source for watching the solar disc. When something is happening, I look at the movies. And, usually play them normal speed. I am easily entertained. When something happens that I see interesting I save the movie and at a later date check out the interesting part.

            The other day (Jul 14 early morning) I saw a brightness change on the movie that caught my eye. It happened about 1am, (I saw it 11 hours later). I think the brightness change was because the magnetic flux line passed between the sun’s corona and our view. It was an instant change from shading the sun to clear. Within that very short time period, the xray emitting structure under the corona began to brighten and appear as a wire loop. Unshaded.

            Even after watching it several times, It is still eerie to me.

            Seeing that emitter staring up at me and nothing between it and me but the atmosphere.

            The xrays are instant. We had 2 sorta big ones. The first one occured around 6pm so it is hard to get correlation with the pressure while the sun is forcing the diurnal, but the second was smaller and was at 8pm. So it did deflect the pressure and rained at the same time.

            7/16/17 22:00 GMT
            A shock passage, likely related to the CME observed a few days ago has swept past Earth. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was detected at 06:01 UTC (Jul 16) marking the exact moment of impact. The solar wind speed is currently near 430 km/s and the BZ component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently pointing sharply south (-20nT). Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming will be possible in the hours ahead with a chance for moderate (G2) storming as well.

            So I am in a wait state until the rest of the sun arrives… (if it does) Coronal holes take 4 to 5 days depending on the solar wind. This is the first “proton storm” I’ve seen…

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        • Again, Willis please look at the 24hr video of the water vapor above. Just below the tip of Texas there is a short burst of a “hot spot”. This is the second one that I have seen. Appears to be originated inside of Mexico.

          It doesn’t last long, but made me curious as to what it is.

          Like

  18. Someone needs to look at the claim that sanctuary cities have less crime. For many years there has been a positive correlation between immigrants and a good economy. However, a good economy is more likely to cause immigrants, not that immigrants cause a good economy.

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  19. Willis, I’d bet my bottom Dollar that you read E. M. Smith. His take on the Syria situation is that it is impossible to rule out the likelihood that POTUS Trump has just been neo-conned. In case you haven’t seen it, link here https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2017/04/07/if-but-lie-hope-is-vs-deception/

    Hard to know what to think.

    Context: Assad is strongly supported by Meronites, Syrian Catholics and Orthodox, and of course the Shia and Alawite minorities… and, was reported to be at the re-opening of the bombed out Aleppo cathedral. I have to say that the evidence of monstrousness fits the Sunnah followers much better than it fits the Shia-Christian allience.

    At any rate, we are cursed to live in interesting time.

    Fiji sounds like a nice place to be about now. My nephew is there, I think, , working with the “Survivor” crew, his second or third year there for filming.

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  20. I have noticed that you are a man of principles – it would be interesting to know if you are clear about the principles that guide your inquiries. In particular, it would be interesting for me to hear if these principles are principles that you can associate with.

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    • Thanks for the question, SorF. Those are interesting principles. However, in my opinion there are too many of them.

      Curiously, although you say that there is no definition of the scientific principles, in law there is a clear definition that distinguishes between what is or is not science, viz:

      Legally speaking, the word “science” was defined in McLean v. Arkansas (1982), a famous court case that exiled creation science from public schools. Judge William Overton found that creation science was not science at all because it failed a five-prong test. According to his decision genuine science must:

      1) be guided by natural law;

      2) be explanatory by reference to natural law;

      3) be testable against the empirical world;

      4) have conclusions that are tentative, i.e. are not necessarily the final word; and

      5) be falsifiable.

      That definition has been enough for me, but of course YMMV.

      w.

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      • Thanks a lot for your reply. 🙂

        The reference to McLean v. Arkansas (1982) was an interesting perspective.

        At first sight, the principles By Judge William Overton, as you list them, seem to be fine as a first approximation but in my opinion not sufficient. A lot of mistakes are guided by natural law or explained by natural law.

        I will look into that court case before I speculate any further about its full content.

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  21. Hi Willis,
    After many years reading WUWT and your many posts, I feel confident enough to present some of the things I have learnt to my local community. To help me in this endeavour I wonder if you could check and/or comment on the following points on the climate models I am unsure of.
    1) That a CO2 increase from 280 to 560ppm alone is projected to add about 0.6oC global temp.
    2) That the rest (or bulk) of the claimed BAU 3C rise (2.4C) by 2100 is from positive water vapour (wv) feedback.
    3) That the NOAA’s relative humidity monitoring since 1948 showing a 10% fall disproves positive wv feedback and NASA’s 1988 Water Vapour Project failure to find any robust evidence of increasing wv adds further confirmation to this view.

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    • Richard, thanks for the question. You ask about the following:

      1) That a CO2 increase from 280 to 560ppm alone is projected to add about 0.6oC global temp.

      There are a number of projections about the sensitivity of the globe to increases in forcing. They vary quite a bit.

      2) That the rest (or bulk) of the claimed BAU 3C rise (2.4C) by 2100 is from positive water vapour (wv) feedback.

      Generally true, although other feedbacks are claimed as well.

      3) That the NOAA’s relative humidity monitoring since 1948 showing a 10% fall disproves positive wv feedback and NASA’s 1988 Water Vapour Project failure to find any robust evidence of increasing wv adds further confirmation to this view.

      I’d need a citation for that one. I’ve not seen anything saying that NOAA has measured a fall in water vapor of 10%. Might be so, but I’ve not seen it. I’d doubt it, as I doubt we had valid numbers for global water vapor in 1948.

      Best regards, if you have more questions ask them.

      w.

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        • Thanks, Richard. That’s not data. That’s the output of an NCEP computer model that is nudged back on course by historical records. However, for the upper altitude regions we have little relative humidity information from those times on a global basis.

          Note also that there is significant difference between the current computer model and the previous model … so why should we trust either one?

          Regards,

          w.

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          • Willis, I understand your reservations on the accuracy of these data, however, if it were true that relative humidity has fallen since 1948 would it not lend support to your thunderstorm and cloud timing theory?

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  22. Sorry Willis, I think my last reply was badly worded. Let me try again.
    ……. if it were true that relative humidity has fallen since 1948 would this be in agreement with your thunderstorm and cloud timing theory?

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    • Richard Steward May 18, 2017 at 2:59 pm

      Sorry Willis, I think my last reply was badly worded. Let me try again.
      ……. if it were true that relative humidity has fallen since 1948 would this be in agreement with your thunderstorm and cloud timing theory?

      Ah. Good question. I don’t know. In general a warmer world is a wetter world. However, whether this expresses itself as increased relative humidity or just an increase in precipitation is, as far as I know, among the many unsolved questions about the climate.

      w.

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      • You say “In general a warmer world is a wetter world” but if this were true would not the increased wv force the temperature to a point that would extinguish all life on this planet? Is it possible, therefore, that your thunderstorm and cloud timing theory is the regulating factor that that prevents the Clausius-Clapeyron 7%/1K from working in the real world?

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  23. Sir,

    If you *happen* to ever get the sailboat bug again, and wouldn’t mind showing two land lubbers how to raise their mast and rigging on a 1974 24 ft’er currently floating on the Sacramento river. Steaks, Beer, and a lifetime key to the boat for Delta/Bay use is yours for the help.

    A friend of mine, with zero water experience decided she HAD to buy a boat. I gave her every reason to NEVER do it. I honestly tried to do the right thing and stop this from happening, but sadly she was determined, very determined.

    Seriously, we will never EVER take it sailing in the Bay, with out professional help. So if you happened to want use of a free sailboat for you and the former finance, my friend and I have already discussed how nice it would be to actually sail it on the Bay. To have a professional confirm it is safe to sail.

    My friend will be working in Navato for the Summer. I am giving the boat a quick month of refresh work, and mounting an outboard to it, and will probably bring it down river to her location in July. If you happen to be in the North Marin, or Sacramento area this summer it would be great to cross paths, buy you a beer and listen to your advice on sailing.

    Seriously, any and all advice is GREATLY appreciated…

    Jack from Sac

    Like

  24. Have you noticed the recent BC election where an (ex?) climate scientist/alarmist got to be the King player?
    http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/coming-b-c-ndp-green-agenda-means-province-is-next-in-line-for-an-energy-shock

    BTW, this BC blog is excellent and well worth following:
    https://achemistinlangley.wordpress.com/2017/06/02/on-site-c-pipelines-and-noble-cause-environmentalists/

    Further to the kingmaker story above, Rex Murphy says:

    What does this say about green politics and social licence? That the former is absolutist — it talks compromise but acts fundamentalist. That the latter is a tactic, not a concept. That every precondition set down by green lobbyists, foundations, or political parties before any action can be taken on oil and the economy is always one in an ever-extending series. A series, that by definition, can never be ended.

    http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/rex-murphy-if-b-c-s-ndp-green-alliance-cant-work-with-green-social-democrat-rachel-notley-with-whom-could-they-work

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  25. Hi Willis,

    I always look for your comments on WUWT. I enjoy your writing. As a self-educated power user of R, I was wondering if the purchase by Microsoft has led to changes, and/or difficulties in usage.

    Rich

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      • Thanks, I didn’t realize there was a difference. Some of the articles I read about Microsoft’s purchase commented about how this would change the R system. Evidently they didn’t give complete information. My programming experience was a long time ago; Fortran Watfor, Assembly language, and some basic BASIC.

        Rich

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  26. Willis, was looking for an email address but this section will be fine, not some secret …

    Started watching something that I really enjoyed way back when.
    Came across something that might interest you…

    FF to 14 mins in :^}

    (Not sure the link will work so … YouTube search : “BushTucker Man 1×02 The Wet in Port Keats Northwest Northern Territory”)

    Like

  27. Willis, you commented on the WUWT thread, regarding the solar magnetic field, “It appears as though Mr. Fix or Mr. Archibald think that the sun swaps magnetic polarity at the low point of the sunspot cycle. My understanding is that the swap takes place around the maximum of the sunspot cycle.”

    I gave a quick answer there, but if you want to email me, I’ll gladly provide a more complete answer. Maybe even a reference or two.

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    • Thanks, Ed. I fear that your answer there was not to the point. You gave a graph purporting to represent the sun’s heliomagnetic cycle, but you had the polarity flipping at the minimum rather than the maximum. Rather than dealing with this error, you pointed to something else.

      So yes, I’d be more than happy for you to clarify it, either here, there, or anywhere.

      Regards,

      w.

      Like

    • Tad July 14, 2017 at 11:29 pm

      Willis-
      I’d love to see your analysis of this article from Alaska Dispatch News:
      https://www.adn.com/arctic/2017/07/11/as-sea-ice-gets-scarcer-polar-bear-attacks-on-people-become-more-frequent/
      Very much enjoy your insights.

      Thanks for your kind words, Tad. Let me talk a little bit about how I approach this kind of issue.

      I begin by thinking about expected results or outcomes given the facts of the situation. Let me list the relevant facts.

            There has been on the order of a TRIPLING of the polar bear population over the last three decades.

            During this same time, the Arctic sea ice has been decreasing.

            Over the same period, the population of Alaska has increased by about 50%

      Next, given those facts, here are some questions about the expected outcomes:

            Given the increases in both human and bear populations, would we expect the number of polar bear attacks to be increasing or decreasing?

            Is the decrease in sea ice causing the increase in polar bear population?

            Is the decrease in sea ice causing the increase in polar bear attacks?

            As the bear population approaches the carrying capacity of the landscape, will the average bear be hungrier or less hungry?

            As the bear population approaches the carrying capacity of the landscape and more bears compete for the same amount of territory, will the average male bear be more aggro or less aggro?

      Once I have an idea what the expected outcome is given the facts, it is often obvious where their analysis is valid and where it goes off the rails …

      Finally, if that is not enough, the authors themselves acknowledge the weakness of their own argument, viz:

      The study does not make cause-and-effect conclusions, but it points out a “strong correlation and just cause for concern,”

      I’d probably have more if I thought about it, but that reveals the underlying logical problems with their arguments.

      Regards

      w.

      Like

      • Thanks, Willis, I am honored by your excellent and quick response. Wish we had the likes of you teaching our current crop of college students.

        God bless!
        Tad

        Like

  28. Hi Willis,
    Have you noticed lately that Elon Musk, the ABC (Australian one) and many others are moving to the new scare – Artificial Intelligence and its impact on the new future?

    It looks like they are seeing that the ‘climate change’ scare is having a waning effect although, of course they are not letting up on their ever madder hysteria, but there is a shift. If Mr Musk is talking about it he has his sights on new ways to skim money.

    I am not smart enough to be able to counter arguments etc but keeping everyone on the edge of disaster is evidently a good way to extract money.

    Regards, Rhyl

    Like

  29. Hi Willis,

    I’m looking for people to read and discuss a recent paper that I wrote. It is a first principles calculation of “Global Warming” that I call “There is Only Global Cooling”. If you’re interested please contact me at ‘paul at linsay dot com’ and I’ll email it to you.

    Regards—

    BTW, I flubbed around explaining chaos to you a while back on WUWT. I’m writing up a better explanation that I’ll send you when it’s done. That happens when you haven’t thought about something for twenty years.

    Like

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