Losing The Race

I saw a very impressive man on TV today, a black ex-Navy guy. He said:

“When I wear my uniform, I get thanked for my service. And when I wear a suit, I get treated well.

But catch me with three days worth of beard wearing a hoodie, and suddenly everyone’s afraid of me”.

the hoodie

Let me start by saying this is a tragedy. However, it is more than just a tragedy. It is also a matter of statistics.

Whenever I or anyone walks down the street, we’re scanning for danger. This is especially true late at night or in a strange location.

So I’m walking down the street and I see a couple of unshaven young guys in hoodies. Here are the statistics.

Black people commit more than half of all the murders committed in the US. More than half. 90% of these murders are committed by black men, as opposed to black women.

Black people commit more than half of all the robberies committed in the US. More than half. 80% of these are committed by black men.

And the results are more depressing for young black people. They commit 58% of the murders and 64% of the robberies in the 18-and-under age group. And again, it’s almost all young black men, not young black women.

Next, as I discussed here, of the 607,762 violent black-white incidents recorded in 2018, black people were the offenders in over 90% of them. In other words, in nine violent incidents out of ten, whites were the victims and blacks were the offenders.

And the final statistic. Black men are only about 6% of the US population.

In other words, black men in general and young black men in particular are far and away the most dangerous of all of the large subgroups of us humanoids living in the US. They commit crimes of all types in amounts way, way out of proportion to their small percentage of the population.

I know it’s not politically correct to say that … but facts know nothing of political correctness.

So I’d have to say to that interesting Navy man that yes, if I’m walking down a strange street, I will most definitely profile every swinging richard that crosses my path, white, black, or green. Why?

Because I’d be crazy not to do what I can to identify possible problems in advance.

And yes, to my Navy friend who I thank most sincerely for your service, I must confess that I do pay careful attention to the most dangerous group of people in the US … black men.

Again, I’d be crazy not to.

Now, let me be perfectly clear that no, I don’t assume that black people are murderers and robbers, don’t be daft. Like most Americans black white and in between, I’m not racist. Plus in my case, my grandmother wouldn’t allow it, she was death on racism in any form. In the 1950s she would NOT allow the “n-word” to be spoken in her presence … a woman far, far ahead of her time.

As a result of her example and guidance, the only assumption I make about black people is the same assumption I make about every race including my own (the melanin-deficient race). That assumption is the 80/20 rule … 80% of every race of people I’ve dealt with on every continent except Antarctica are decent friendly hard-working humanoids, and the other 20% … well, not so much …

But I don’t let that blind me to reality.

Perhaps it would be clearer if we take the emotions of race out of it. I could grow my hair and my beard down to my shoulders, put on a wife-beater T-shirt, and don a black leather vest with “DESERT VIPERS” on the back with an image of a snake riding a Harley. Finish with leather riding chaps over Levis and high boots, ready to go.

geezer biker

And when I’d walk down the street at night, people would indeed pay close attention to me and perhaps be afraid of me … but not because of anything I’ve done.

After all, I’m still the same congenial nimrod that I was before I got all dressed up.

Nope. People would be cautious around me solely and only because I look like people known to be dangerous … and it’s perfectly reasonable for them to be cautious on that basis. In my experience, you don’t want to mess with bikers.

Sadly, the same happens to the Navy man. He gets … well, I was going to say “tarred with the same brush”, but someone would be sure to call that RACIST!!! although it has zero to do with race, viz:

TARRED WITH THE SAME BRUSH – “Someone who shares the sins or faults of another, though possibly to a lesser degree, is tarred with the same brush. The saying may have something to do with the tarred-and-feathered criminals (see below), but the reference is probably to the tarring of sheep. Owners of a flock of sheep, which can’t be branded, used to mark their wool all in the same place with a brush dipped in tar to distinguish them from sheep of another flock.

The unfortunate Navy man is suffering for the sins of people who happen to look like him. And sadly, that will NEVER end until black men, women, and teenagers commit crimes at something approximating the same rate as the rest of the population.

Finally, let me state that it is NOT RACIST to be concerned and watchful around the most dangerous subgroup in the US … it is eminently rational, logical, and reasonable. I mean, I feel the same way about Hells Angels wannabes, concerned and watchful; and I’m not gonna be afraid around old Asian ladies; and that’s not racist either.

That’s statistics …

In closing, I don’t believe in just pointing out a problem without proposing a solution. My solution would be, stop giving welfare to single mothers and withholding it from married couples. As could have been easily predicted back in the ’60s, that kind of welfare has led to the wholesale destruction of the black family, a tragedy of unimaginable dimensions. We need to reward intact families, not shattered families. When you pay women to be single mothers and they can’t get the money if they have a man in the house, and you pay them more for each additional child, guess what will happen to the number of single mothers and children without fathers?

It was very foolish and shortsighted for LBJ and others to implement those policies.

But it would be cataclysmically stupid if, with the advantage of hindsight, we did not reverse those policies.

My best regards to all my friends and readers, white, black, and everything in between. My opinion on race is, I told my gorgeous ex-fiancée that I wanted a beautiful mocha baby like so many of our friends were having at the time, but she said my only option was vanilla … I’m still bummed about that.


PS To My Navy Friend: If you don’t want to be wrongly identified with some of the worst elements in black society, you might consider not wearing hoodies … I know it’s tough to contemplate, but there are people who have been known to never wear a hoodie in their life.

DATA: I’ve used FBI/DOJ statistics throughout, from here, here,  here,  and here

34 thoughts on “Losing The Race

  1. No, I will not put my image online, yes, I get the same effect. Long haired, causal “attire”, less than cordial attitude and armed. Openly. Some people treat me like crap, 90% say “sup, bro”. Which segment should I be responding to? The criminal one. And in our local area they know not to f*ck with me or anyone associated with me. THAT is the baseline problem, criminals have no fear. Hell, they in Congress and whatnot.


  2. Willis thanks for the data and I must admit I didn’t understand this as well as I should have.
    I’m an Aussie and we also have an indigenous population that is over represented in these categories as well. I’d also be interested in your opinion about the defunding
    of your police forces that seems to be so popular within the BLM mob and parts of the DEM party as you head towards November.
    Are the US left wing extremists really that stupid? Tucker Carlson has a very interesting coverage on FOX news. I must admit this sort of lunacy is frightening to observe.


  3. Your remarks about that “black, ex-Navy guy” are almost exactly what my mind went to when I read that. A lot of what some call “racism” is simply folks being aware of their surroundings and “difference-ism”, something I’ve written about before. Briefly, some examples: when we are walking down the street and someone is coming toward us, we notice differences: that person is shorter or taller, male or female, skin color, appears younger or older, is thin or heavy, the color of their hair (if visible), and more. If every redhead we’ve met has a great sense of humor, we might expect the one we just met to have a great sense of humor and may be unpleasantly surprised. If a person’s sex is the sex we are drawn toward, our actions may not be the same as if the person’s sex is not our preferred sex. “Difference-ism” is something we experience almost all the time and it may cause us to act, um, differently based on our previous life experiences. What we should be careful is to not let the situation described by that “black, ex-Navy guy” to be conflated to racism when it really is difference-ism.


  4. Willis, excellent post.

    The points you made are right in line with mine and most of my friends and associates. Must be common knowledge outside the ‘new’ academia, political class, and media. But that is where “Political Correctness” resides and manifests.


  5. Willis, excellent post, thank you.

    You said:

    “As could have been easily predicted back in the ’60s, that kind of welfare has led to the wholesale destruction of the black family…”

    As it turns out, in 1965 this very thing was predicted by Daniel Patric Moynihan, a Democrat (The Assistant Secretary of Labor under LBJ). His warnings were of course ignored by his fellow Democrats. They were too busy buying the black vote with welfare payments to be at all concerned about destroying the black family. They still are.





    • Willis –

      > So I’m walking down the street and I see a couple of unshaven young guys in hoodies. Here are the statistics you’re all into statistics and stuff:

      What do you suppose the odds are that if you walk down the street in an unfamiliar neighborhood and three unshaven young black men in hoodies walk past you, that they might assault you or murder you?

      Are the odds high enough that “statistics” would explain why youd be afraid if they were black as opposed to if they were white?

      In terms of absolute risk, what’s the difference? Give me some “statistics.”


      • Currently, I’m living in a white, rural area. For about 7 years now. Prior to that I lived in a predominantly black, urban neighborhood for about 15 years. And during other periods of my life I’ve lived in predominantly black and/or racially mixed areas for significant periods of time.

        Never once been a victim of a violent crime, knock on wood. And as hard as it might be to believe, despite spending decades living in predominantly black and/or mixed neighborhoods, I’ve never been murdered, either. That despite having passed lots of groups of young black men (some unshaven) wearing hoodies. Imagine that.

        Now I will readily admit that sometimes, when walking past such groups of young black men, I’ve caught myself being a bit afraid. And then I’ve reflected in what lay behind that fear. Mostly, it was a commonly fallacious way of assessing risk and thinking about statistics.

        But another part of it was my innate tendency towards racist/prejudicial thinking. That doesn’t really make me a “racist,” in my view. But it means that like pretty much like everyone else in the world, I can tend towards prejudicial/racist thinking at times.

        I’ve had similar experiences sometimes when walking past a bunch of rednecks with confederate flags and gun racks in their trucks. I sometimes get a similar kind of feeling when I walk past the rod and gun club up the road from.mybhiuse, where I like to walk, and some locals are target shooting with semi-automatic weapons

        It’s kind of like sometimes when someine cuts me off on the road, and I find myself checking to see if the driver is Asian or maybe a woman or maybe from Massachusetts, so I can say to myself “Yup, Asian drivers are terrible” or “women drivers are clueless,” or “Boston drivers are so rude.”

        See, my mind just kind of works like that. I tend to look for patterns in information, so I can categorized it and generalize and from that make sense of the world.

        But then I also have the possibility of observing that tendency, and thinking through how rational it is, or whether it might be based on ill-founded prejudices or a poor risk analysis.

        Personally, what what I find problematic, in addition to flat out, proud of it racists, are the people who think of themselves as not harboring any racist beliefs or ever engaging in stupid risk analysis, or acting out if ill-founded prejudices. They tend to be the people who are the most ignorant about the racial implications of their beliefs because they are defensive and closed off to self-examination. Yah, that’s a problem. At least flat out racists are aware of the implications of their prejudices. They don’t care about those implications, but at least they’re self-aware enough to know that they exist.


        • Here’s another funny thing.

          I don’t know the comparative “statistics” of the impact of white collar crime, or corporate crime, as compared to street crime.

          But I’d be willing to bet that the absolute impact of white collar crime and corporate crime are reasonably significant. I’ll bet that when you really get into it, those types of crimes might even cause a pretty solid amoint of death and injury. And it’s funny because I’m reasonably sure that the vast majority of that kind if crime is committed by white men who are clean shaven and wear a suit and tie.

          And yet, when I’m walking down the street and I see some white guy, clean shaven and wearing a suit and tie, I don’t even think about how white men in suits and ties and clean shaven are the one predominately responsible for the impact of white collar and corporate crime. Glad that is don’t or otherwise of have to admit thatnim a racist against white guys who are clean shaven and wear suits.


      • Joshua June 15, 2020 at 7:31 pm

        Willis –

        > So I’m walking down the street and I see a couple of unshaven young guys in hoodies. Here are the statistics you’re all into statistics and stuff:

        What do you suppose the odds are that if you walk down the street in an unfamiliar neighborhood and three unshaven young black men in hoodies walk past you, that they might assault you or murder you?

        Are the odds high enough that “statistics” would explain why youd be afraid if they were black as opposed to if they were white?

        In terms of absolute risk, what’s the difference? Give me some “statistics.”

        I’d be glad to give you some statistics. Statistics say that the odds are overwhelming that I wouldn’t piss on you if you were on fire.

        I’ve asked you many times to direct your questions to someone else, because dealing with you is like having a tooth pulled without anesthetic. In Hell. On a bed of nails.

        But of course, being the charming fellow that you are, you’ve ignored my request completely.

        So … I guess I’m just returning the favor. They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery … and in that case, talk to the hand, ’cause the head ain’t listening …


        PS—You do realize, I hope, that your rant about “statistics” and walking the streets in black and white neighborhoods has just convinced 97.3% of the readership that you probably don’t even know how to pronounce “statistics”, much less know what it means …

        Liked by 2 people

        • “Statistics say that the odds are overwhelming that I wouldn’t piss on you if you were on fire” Oop, there it is, ever’body cabbage patch! It simply amazes me how many educated people simply refuse to accept the reality in front of them.


        • Yeah, I figured you wouldn’t bother to figure it out, Willis. Wouldn’t want to examine your prejudices, now would you?


          • Odds ratio and sensitivity analysis (thinking of your silly post about the relationship between government interventions and Covid-19 outcomes) are pretty standard concepts in “statistics,” Willis. Weird that in your just the facts approach to “statistics” that’s completely devoid of any prejudices, you’d miss those analytical tools.

            Or maybe not.


          • Hotel –

            Maybe it isn’t just “statistics” that explains why Willis feels afraid when he walks past some unshaven black kids in hoodies.

            In reality, the chances of him becoming a victim when he does so might be pretty small. Most victims of violent crimes have some kind of relationship, or in the very least some kind of volitional interaction with the perpetrator. Most of the time they’re doing something like selling or buying drugs or engaged in some kind of nefarious activity. I assume that Willis isn’t involved in the drug trade or other such activities.

            Now I guess the chances of him being a victim when walking past some unshaven black kids in hoodies might be somewhat higher than if he walked past a group of unshaven rednecks with confederate flags on their sweatshirts hanging outside a dive bar, or a bunch of unshaven white bikers with colors on their denim vests hanging out near their clubhouse, I don’t really know for sure. It would prolly depend on other aspects of the context – but let’s say that’s true on average. Well, that might mean that the chances of him coming to harm go from really, really, really unlikely to being something like really, really unlikely.

            So that’s why I asked him to use his “statistics” to evaluate that question. Because maybe, there are some prejudices, or poor risk evaluation, that go into why he feels scared when he walks past a couple of unshaven black kids in hoodies.


          • All the blahblah to say nothing yet again. The only point you ever make is that people should point and laugh every time you open your piehole.

            Liked by 1 person

          • I mean it does seem like God invented stuff like odds ratio to help us understand stuff like this, doesnt it?


          • Hotel –

            > All the blahblah to say nothing yet again. The only point you ever make is that people should point and laugh every time you open your piehole.

            Oh, OK. So the actual chances that Willis will be a victim is compleyely irrelevant to whether he should be afraid if he walks by some black kids.

            I got it now. Thanks.


  6. Excellent post!

    One of the issues that needs to be addressed by communities is that when ones outlook is that everything bad that happens to you is because of racism, you will see racists everywhere. I’ve worked with these types and here’s some examples from the worst one I worked with.

    -He goes out to eat and gets bad service, it’s because the water/waitress is a racist. I had to stop going out to lunch with him because he’s one of “those” types of customers that servers hate. He complained about everything to the servers, would request the manager so he could complain to them then attempt to get his meals for free as compensation. Every. Single. Time. With a limited number of places to eat around work he was well known, I could see in their eyes and false smile they didn’t like him but it wasn’t because of his skin color.

    -Gets multiple speeding tickets. In his view the only reason he gets pulled over and given a ticket was because of driving while black and not from his lead foot. Driving while black is a real thing but don’t complain about it if you’re constantly breaking traffic laws in the process. If you get a ticket for doing 15 over you earned it.

    -Young guy, single, making a lot of money with friends all over the US. He would buy tickets literally just a few hours before his flight, post 9/11. Seeing how buying plane tickets at the last minute is a red flag you can expect to get extra attention from TSA but to him he was getting the extra attention because of racism.

    -Drives to Mexico with his sister for vacation. Coming back border patrol questions them about who they are, where they live, what they were doing in Mexico, etc… Why? You guessed it, racism. Having been across the border several times myself I was asked the very same questions and just thought the guy was doing his job. He shut up about that one after I asked him if the cars in front and behind were also being asked questions.

    Almost every interaction he had with someone that he didn’t like the outcome of would be because of racism. Haven’t seen him in years but last I heard he’s up in Chicago, probably on the streets peacefully protesting racial injustice (a lover, not a fighter) right now.

    Racism does exist and always will to some extent but it’s helping no ones cause to accuse everyone you disagree with of being a racist.


  7. This stuck with me since I read it. John Cambell, the editor of Analog and Astounding Magazines for many years wrote an editorial where it called what happens to your friend the Elsa Syndrome. His example was of Elsa the Lioness who was raised by humans and returned to the wild but still loved humans. If you saw a lioness charging across the savana towards you would you just assume it was Elsa coming to greet you? No, you would run or shoot it because you couldn’t be sure that it was Elsa and rationally you would have to assume that it was a wild lion coming to attack you since that would be what statistics and experience told you. You’re prejudging the situation but that’s what experience tells you to do if you’re going to survive. Even Jesse Jackson said that in some neighborhoods when he heard footsteps behind him he would be relieved when he turned around and saw that it was just some white dude. I’m probably sure he would deny that he said it now given the present climate.

    Your friend wearing a hoodie was wearing clothing that has become associated with thugs. No different if he saw a white man wearing a white robe and pointed hat and assumed he was a Klansman (it’s also a religious garb). You would start by assuming what statistics and your experience told you. Now if you don’t change your view of the person when you find out they are not what you thought then you’re not prejudiced, your a bigot and no information will change your mind.


    • bear –

      > You would start by assuming what statistics and your experience told you.

      What would “statistics” and your experience tell you about a young black guy wearing a hiodie coming up behind you?

      What are the odds he would harm you? How many times have you been mugged in such situations?


      • No I haven’t been mugged but then I haven’t been to the african savana walking around next to a pride of lions either. Doesn’t sound like you are.


        • bear –

          Some people are afraid of a lot of things, as they one people don’t walk under ladders.

          The odds that a person walking past a pride of lions seems pretty high to me. I’ve walked past many groups of young black men. I wouldn’t walk past a price of lions.

          We can do better than just reacting out of irrational fear. How would you assess if your fear of unshaven young black men is proportional to the threat? Do you have any idea of what the odds of coming to coming to harm are? Do you have any idea of how the odds of coming to harm if compare to walking past a group of unshaven white bikers in colors? Would you be scared of them also? How about just a group of unshaven white frat boys? How about it you were black and walked past a group of unshaven frat boys? How would the odds compare then?


          • Well, good luck walking through sections of Baltimore, Washington, Chicago etc at night. What you call irrational fear I call rational understanding of crime statistics. You seem to have an extreme lack of common sense about risk.

            Oh, and I avoid white biker bars too.


          • I have never had a problem in any biker bar, contrary to popularized accounts from TV and movies they are just bars. It is the ones owned by specific “clubs” non-members should avoid. Same for other bars, I have frequented several in the DC metro area where I was the only white person in the building and never had trouble, its out in the street where problems occur.


  8. When I was about 8, we went to a new place in India. Some of the kids there shouted ‘White faced monkeys’ (Bhura mu ka bundar) at us. My brothers and I shouted back ‘Black faced monkeys’. Their parents complained to our parents. We were punished. We never played with those kids. Does this kind of lesson underlie the supposed ‘white guilt’? It certainly taught us that racism only goes one way.

    My 6’3 son knows he is likely to get rolled and robbed again (by young black men in hoodies) if he walks alone in the wrong neighbourhood in Montreal. And he was sensible enough not to call the police, because that would make him a target to be hunted. Willis is quite right about who and where to avoid.


  9. Willis,
    I gave up on Joshua a long time ago. He is both intellectually dishonest and unable to consider the possibility he is mistaken about anything of substance. His is a foolish belief in the absolute truth of his own political opinions; that kind of belief is the stuff of which totalitarians are made. If I were you, I would simply block him from commenting, since he is incapable of making a constructive, or even informative, comment. Unlike you, I would piss on him if he were on fire… and I needed to relieve myself.


  10. I think some in the black community have identified the problem with their young males. Walter E. Williams summed it up brilliantly:
    “Whether we want to own up to it or not, the welfare state has done what Jim Crow, gross discrimination and poverty could not have done. It has contributed to the breakdown of the black family structure and has helped establish a set of values alien to the traditional values of high moral standards, hard work and achievement.”

    Most mammal species have the young males challenge the older ones. The silverback gorilla or bull elephant will put them in their place but not seriously harm them. What happens when the dad figure is absent? That vacuum gets filled with gangs where they will be seriously harmed and harm others.

    How many gang members come from families in the Nation Of Islam? Few if any. They don’t need a gang as a surrogate father. They have the real deal. Family is the core unit of society and without the adult male to challenge when growing up teens find other outlets. Until that is fixed I see no chance that the situation will improve.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Don’t forget Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart” where he analyzes White America. The top 25 percent is doin’ fine, with great careers and merger marriages; the middle 40 percent is doing so-so. The bottom 35 percent not so good: the men don’t work much and the women don’t marry much.

    Could welfare be doing its evil work here too?

    One of my Four Laws is “Government programs never work because you cannot reform them.”


  12. I read that there’s a young-black-male culture in some US cities, who murder each other mostly.

    I presume young-black-female persons are home taking care of the offspring of dalliances with the evil males.

    What’s needed is an understanding of the reason for the malevolent culture and meaningful communication of that, then voting for competent honest politicians.


You are invited to add your comments. Please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING so we can all be clear on your subject.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s